NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad11a2345ed7b6ff91b8e88afce24aa29ee460d427d97a677ad91c9167c90c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 6,981$4,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.99 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 40c | 2,411$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.35 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 61c | 2,199$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.72 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 2,100$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 1,995$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.11 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Over | 60c | 1,987$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 40c | 1,488$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.2 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 817.28$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.28 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 39c | 778$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.42 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 697.75$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 62c | 502.74$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 61c | 328.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Under | 40c | 166.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 40c | 131.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 60c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Over | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 108.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 40c | 86.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 40c | 63.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 40c | 62.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Under | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Over | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 61c | 46.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 42.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Over | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Over | 61c | 32.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 70c | 32.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Under | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Under | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Over | 61c | 26.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.