NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0c08d11dd6ffbc5c91aa9a59ca0e6a709ca6f6837770ebe8c8eaf7652c227b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 47,802$25,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,335 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 47c | 38,613$18,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,465.07 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 3,638$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.3 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 2,240$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.66 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 47c | 1,596$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.74 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,383$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.63 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 948$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.44 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 836.99$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.52 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 736.32$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.05 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 570$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 550$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.3 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 5c | 496$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 443.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 54c | 425$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 284.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 54c | 214.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 66c | 168.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 52c | 128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 52c | 114$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…3d6ebacked Under | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 53c | 79.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 69.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 68.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…551abacked Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Under | 26c | 43.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 30.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 76c | 30.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Under | 53c | 28.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Under | 53c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.