NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9984007aeb5ab5c53150e6e030ddef9ae203e218e3bc2098557c0c06067f08bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf1b…b963backed Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 3,004$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 58c | 1,750$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.52 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 11c | 1,136$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.04 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f721backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 4c | 600$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 58c | 502.47$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.43 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 43c | 463$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 443.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 420.51$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 351$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 13c | 291.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 243$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 8c | 209.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 133.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 61c | 86.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 52c | 84.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 44c | 70.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 42c | 62.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…ba9bbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…32e3backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.