NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67263495898c39f759c72eb7634ecb7a2abbd70c40a0d389fcf445e7971fde9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Under | 55c | 1,797$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.65 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 44c | 1,108$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.22 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 995$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.31 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 925.37$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 44c | 532.55$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 55c | 421.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 255.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked Under | 55c | 212$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 43c | 197$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 66c | 137$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 128.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 77c | 65.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 42.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 41.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Under | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…0e3fbacked Under | 56c | 23.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…dbdcbacked Under | 56c | 18.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Flames vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.