TailMyPicks
Market

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,727 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb547…a237backed No37c2,778$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.121136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes41c1,628$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.6934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes17c1,294$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.982020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes63c1,252$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.7650%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed No40c956$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaffd…b072backed Yes37c950$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No40c942$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes11c907.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.85714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes55c879$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.45742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c5…2dacbacked No76c843$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes24c811$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes63c690$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes60c671$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed Yes60c657$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf8…ded2backed Yes60c632$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes56c572.99$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.351540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No63c482$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked No63c468$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes50c444.22$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8115232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes63c438$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes51c395.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes40c389.22$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.247749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No49c360.1$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.266653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No51c358.25$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No63c340.67$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.853857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3744…d422backed Yes67c308.32$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No45c304$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No45c293$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No45c282$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked No78c272.1$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.943961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e63…399abacked Yes67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4350…914cbacked Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c205.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7712150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes49c204.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No51c204$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.549646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes56c199.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3307…b2c4backed Yes44c191$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes68c172.71$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fc…6de0backed Yes45c166$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c0…54e1backed Yes51c166$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e63…e568backed Yes44c166$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d5…4f65backed Yes60c166$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x249b…ef41backed Yes50c166$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No39c140.51$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.022142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab8…eb56backed Yes78c130$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.940%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes40c129.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.62020%4 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1849…8916backed No31c129.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+134%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcffd…7f24backed Yes67c119.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes47c114$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9619631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c103.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c102.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9649711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes15c88.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1724433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c82.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No55c81.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.426845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa95b…711abacked Yes64c64.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No73c63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8424861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes57c62.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8816632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No40c62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No50c59.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5212643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed No34c58.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.481154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c57.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.999010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No45c57.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5913317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked Yes63c49.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No48c45.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.517648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes31c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No39c39.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd343…724ebacked No36c39.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes64c36.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba23…814dbacked No77c34.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes63c34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No53c32.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.221764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No35c30.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+90.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No67c30.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.792832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes63c29.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad42…c918backed No66c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes71c24.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4233521.8%73 W · 262 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes69c24.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.734734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…8dddbacked No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed Yes67c21.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdb…874ebacked Yes75c21.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd36c…d7a2backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No61c19.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.735950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No69c19.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.013145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…19c0backed Yes71c15.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.