Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8843e349c9949119753a20781431a3269b7f904115114cb76e4b54a25cf3f684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 70c | 2,455$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,570$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,037$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 38c | 1,009$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.86 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 22c | 940$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 30c | 865$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 30c | 861$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 30c | 854$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 78c | 687$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 78c | 651$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 78c | 639$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 614$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 35c | 506.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.12 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 41c | 485$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 59c | 475$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 441.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.97 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 59c | 441$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 41c | 431$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 42c | 276.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 166 | 34.3%57 W · 109 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 251 | 32.7%82 W · 169 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 199.22$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 45c | 196.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 36c | 188.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 68c | 183.37$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 181.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -20.9wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 179.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 144.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 144.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 139.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 33c | 120.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba2…6208backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 17c | 116$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 80.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 27c | 74.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 69.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 347 | 29.1%101 W · 246 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd343…724ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…7df6backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abc…52cabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 41c | 47.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 28c | 44.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +134%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfeb…ef84backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 70c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 37c | 33.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd0…4048backed No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…375abacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 18.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?this page
- Will Adal Regis be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
- Will Eric France be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
- Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
- Will Robert Peters be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
- Will Willie Preston be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
- Will Yumeka Brown be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.