TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Junaid Ahmed be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,102 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes32c3,199$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.493357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes19c1,444$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes26c1,316$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes31c1,100$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes24c825.62$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.65747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed Yes19c752$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes19c691$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c610.5$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.086653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e63…399abacked No67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c440.02$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5421155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes23c423.61$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.042020%4 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c400$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1063857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes33c390.19$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1115232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes18c380$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes27c338$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7619631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes19c313$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4770%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes26c310.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.051540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c298$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5424861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd069…d068backed Yes38c266.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes35c220$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.064425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4350…914cbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes16c186.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8827222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No70c183.69$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.691764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No66c182.06$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes19c175$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes18c173$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd51…b8fcbacked No72c163.69$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes7c161.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes22c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5722833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd501…924bbacked Yes33c147$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5d…9911backed Yes36c142$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes32c135$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes23c134.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6766914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0197…eb91backed Yes31c123$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b66…b2b5backed Yes31c121$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes17c120.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3716544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x610c…d902backed Yes33c119$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…285cbacked Yes34c113$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ac…b64bbacked Yes30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c104.2$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0312150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d7d…02bcbacked Yes33c103.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e3…9e68backed Yes32c102$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes24c86.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.734537.8%17 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No73c86.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4833421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c83.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.659010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes50c79.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c74.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6745035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff23…2b05backed No64c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8349511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce9…4a78backed No67c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf986…2a64backed No69c61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc9…0b92backed No76c60.66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cfe…b83cbacked No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ebe…4a6abacked No68c51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218258.5%48 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…eaa9backed No68c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes26c46.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3222948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d6…17b0backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e84…d064backed No69c44.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0e…75bcbacked No67c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes34c43.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c2…1e09backed No70c43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…567abacked No67c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…794abacked No67c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9590…c828backed No69c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd3…433fbacked No70c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes31c36.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.416845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccdc…247dbacked No69c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3744…d422backed Yes34c35.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8576…646dbacked No67c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfd…db47backed No68c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8282…d6b8backed No69c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d9…9becbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2701…3235backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…c918backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed No68c29.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.211154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2734129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No71c26.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.954734%16 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c26.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc2…1456backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3858…4c9ebacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd265…c472backed No68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…a3aabacked No64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3dbbbacked No68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fb…ebeebacked No64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16a2…2172backed No68c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fd…2b15backed No68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ad…0091backed No65c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb429…8bebbacked No68c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No59c20.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No74c17.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee2…e318backed No68c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.