TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,614 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25bf…825abacked Yes79c4,275$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.62366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes69c4,038$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.8634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes66c1,920$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.831330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes77c1,340$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No30c1,146$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.581717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x518d…3b83backed Yes71c1,098$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes62c867.51$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4915232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No15c599.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903718.9%7 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes79c586$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.167534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked No23c449$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No23c437$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No23c422$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Yes77c421$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No36c409.09$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1221155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed No23c408.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+58%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Yes77c408$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.84955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed No38c407$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.933357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No23c407$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No31c404.75$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5316544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No37c399.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1493857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes59c339$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5519631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e9…b820backed No32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8286backed No32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c0…8505backed No32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879a…f7aebacked No32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…f06dbacked No32c310$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304a…f16fbacked No32c301$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No31c296.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.146653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a7…03d7backed No32c285$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8a…05b7backed No32c283$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No36c266.81$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0634129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39da…b9cfbacked Yes68c251$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17c…bf43backed Yes68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6e…76e0backed Yes68c245.28$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No10c243.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee68…8bb0backed Yes68c242$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7a…5532backed Yes68c232$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes63c231.77$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.629646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…fa97backed Yes68c226$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes64c224.59$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.816632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…d692backed Yes68c223$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c200.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.319010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x81c1…e164backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+52.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c198.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3149511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes70c187.32$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes57c175.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.386030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.061250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes65c165$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.38638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes13c163.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7501…9edbbacked Yes75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49bc…2cdabacked No43c149$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…c8a4backed No34c149$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f73…b552backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654c…9c1cbacked Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1c…517bbacked Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b42…e4debacked Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a43…f7d3backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c0…b2f2backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4063…7032backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0a…62acbacked No36c146$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c145.79$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2833238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcffd…7f24backed Yes70c142.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a9…cfa4backed No33c137$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa43…c686backed Yes73c134.44$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No21c134.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8312643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c122.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c121.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5745035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6aad…fecbbacked No31c117$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No38c106.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0613317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No36c103.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9712150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+76.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes63c99.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3724433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes67c99.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.391540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes59c97.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22020%4 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No33c90.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba23…814dbacked No37c86.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.92837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baa…167fbacked No34c83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed No44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes79c77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4424861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe725…6c4abacked Yes69c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e84…d064backed No33c50.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2122948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.520542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc636…5ef9backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ae…be02backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e50abacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879c…7845backed Yes64c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No37c45.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.845018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed No35c43.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…f9c1backed Yes64c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.28535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5e…7696backed Yes69c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes54c35.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.234953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.