Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9133a7c2abc25ff946a40572cce99b91078287817e513359fcf00bd8cdfacf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,614 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25bf…825abacked Yes | 79c | 4,275$3,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 69c | 4,038$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.86 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 66c | 1,920$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 77c | 1,340$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 30c | 1,146$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…3b83backed Yes | 71c | 1,098$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 62c | 867.51$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.49 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 599.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 79c | 586$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 23c | 449$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 23c | 437$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 23c | 422$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 77c | 421$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 409.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 23c | 408.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 77c | 408$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed No | 38c | 407$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 23c | 407$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 31c | 404.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 399.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 59c | 339$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…b820backed No | 32c | 313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8286backed No | 32c | 313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…8505backed No | 32c | 312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…f7aebacked No | 32c | 312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…f06dbacked No | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…f16fbacked No | 32c | 301$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 296.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…03d7backed No | 32c | 285$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…05b7backed No | 32c | 283$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 266.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…b9cfbacked Yes | 68c | 251$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…bf43backed Yes | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6e…76e0backed Yes | 68c | 245.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 243.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…8bb0backed Yes | 68c | 242$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…5532backed Yes | 68c | 232$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 231.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…fa97backed Yes | 68c | 226$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 64c | 224.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…d692backed Yes | 68c | 223$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 200.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…e164backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 198.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 70c | 187.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 57c | 175.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 65c | 165$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 163.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…2cdabacked No | 43c | 149$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…c8a4backed No | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…b552backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654c…9c1cbacked Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…517bbacked Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b42…e4debacked Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…f7d3backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…b2f2backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4063…7032backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…62acbacked No | 36c | 146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 145.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…7f24backed Yes | 70c | 142.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…cfa4backed No | 33c | 137$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed Yes | 73c | 134.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 21c | 134.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 122.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 121.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…fecbbacked No | 31c | 117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 106.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 103.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 59c | 97.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 37c | 86.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…167fbacked No | 34c | 83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…6c4abacked Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 33c | 50.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc636…5ef9backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879c…7845backed Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 37c | 45.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…f9c1backed Yes | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5e…7696backed Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 54c | 35.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?this page
- Will Junaid Ahmed be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?No won
- Will Kevin Morrison be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?No won
- Will Neil Khot be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?No won
- Will Yasmeen Bankole be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.