TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Toth be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba60…e910backed Yes33c9,532$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,347.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4c1…f022backed Yes39c5,143$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.511172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick43cpaid+114%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No61c3,716$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No66c3,026$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.832540%10 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed Yes22c2,210$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+350.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes24c1,500$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.9924433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes38c1,439$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No3c1,356$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No62c1,105$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes29c1,099$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.0814356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7883…172fbacked Yes21c930$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7322100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+398%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed Yes19c889$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No57c800.76$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.396653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed Yes46c778$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+126%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes34c757.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.642142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes51c692$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked Yes19c658$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+69.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No54c584$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No64c557.9$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.736841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No19c518$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.28195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes43c475.5$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2219631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes19c458$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+120.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c441.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.122020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…6baabacked No49c409$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c399.02$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes18c334$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.5421161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No49c333$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No66c297.67$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6921155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No62c287$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes40c267.14$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e23…ff24backed Yes38c264.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…914cbacked Yes36c264.58$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No12c249.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.994245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed Yes19c245$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes42c234$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.818638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No52c233.48$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c206.81$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.543857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.493154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12416544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x340b…f8dcbacked No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+416.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No54c194$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed No49c184$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes33c178.2$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6922948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes39c162.92$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.866845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes36c161.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.221442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No54c157.87$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.721361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes72c156.01$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.92544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes34c147.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes39c145.88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.452138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No73c137.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No67c133.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5434333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Yes78c128$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.563100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes16c113.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.818310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No67c112.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Yes57c111.89$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…f204backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x81c9…4a47backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1a…4e1bbacked Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes51c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed No65c96.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.441540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No79c94.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.692157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed No67c88.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-43.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c70.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0149711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes22c70.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.763043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4afa…485cbacked No56c69.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4abc…52cabacked Yes35c56.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.941553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No57c48.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No66c47.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked No62c47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Yes54c44.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes76c38.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.215232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed No79c31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.471553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc990…80bbbacked Yes54c29.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc79…f792backed No74c26.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No67c23.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No74c21.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d2…7847backed No65c20.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-63.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No67c19.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.117429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No77c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cf…0479backed No65c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No55c18.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No66c16.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.877648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.