Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7801a8501cf74087af1be4d7a8bbcdd3e808c19b42f41586b2a81e6e7e59daa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 67c | 4,332$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,343$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,183$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 63c | 1,646$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…1b84backed Yes | 69c | 1,309$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…e910backed No | 32c | 1,205$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 65c | 1,101$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.15 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…f022backed No | 37c | 1,082$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +114%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 76c | 1,081$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 30c | 1,059$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 39c | 1,038$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 34c | 956.98$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 851.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 64c | 797.68$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.57 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 61c | 710$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 70c | 699.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 68c | 633.48$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 72c | 623$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 69c | 622$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 604.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 595$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 42c | 583$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 62c | 558$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 80c | 557$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.6 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 30c | 547$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 68c | 504.63$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.31 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 17c | 477$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 70c | 469$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 63c | 468.32$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 39c | 455$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 61c | 455$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 38c | 451$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 24c | 439$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…485cbacked No | 30c | 424.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 31c | 417$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 64c | 414.5$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 70c | 401$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 36c | 386.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 28c | 380$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 380$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…bb66backed Yes | 54c | 367.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…79f3backed Yes | 54c | 360.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 35c | 351$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 70c | 348$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 28c | 341$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 61c | 328$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 45c | 314.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 36c | 311$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 70c | 310$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 72c | 296$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 286.84$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 36c | 285$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 80c | 282.3$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 24c | 279$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 67c | 277$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 256.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.28 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 254.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 62c | 253$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 215.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 64c | 199.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 28c | 198$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…bee3backed Yes | 69c | 193.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 69c | 191.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 32c | 186.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 36c | 182$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 60c | 180$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 171.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 32c | 170.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 153.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 59c | 145.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 40c | 142$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 140.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 135.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 67c | 131.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…e242backed Yes | 17c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 38c | 107$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 38c | 101$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 70c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes | 70c | 71.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 64c | 58.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed Yes | 19c | 53.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 69c | 49.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 54c | 47.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 42c | 46.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 68c | 44.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 45c | 42.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…eb65backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?this page
- Will Martin Etwop be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?No won
- Will Nicholas Plumb be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?No won
- Will Steve Toth be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.