TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Stars vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Starsof Stars, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$687,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $687,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 555 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98f7…b3e4backed Stars49c167,001$81,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,188.8510753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Capitals51c121,697$62,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,065.3148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Stars48c68,000$32,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,359.9848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Stars48c53,146$25,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,655.6247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Capitals52c47,371$24,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,632.897946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Capitals0c40,477$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4832744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Stars46c23,579$10,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,685.171,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Capitals52c19,173$9,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,917.0722550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Capitals55c18,692$10,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,280.541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Stars45c11,111$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.0533243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Capitals53c10,750$5,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,697.528353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Capitals51c10,657$5,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,451.6433151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Capitals55c10,563$5,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,809.574841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Capitals51c9,980$5,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,089.82,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Capitals52c9,962$5,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.4915949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Capitals52c8,246$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.728251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Stars45c6,500$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,574.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Capitals51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0603560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Capitals52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Capitals54c5,949$3,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.0811947.9%57 W · 62 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Capitals14c5,636$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.0489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Capitals0c5,554$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.117450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Capitals51c5,536$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.3630551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Stars45c5,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.995152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Capitals26c5,448$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.3338738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Stars44c5,418$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.231,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Capitals12c5,214$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.2629926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Capitals51c5,121$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.6713251.5%68 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Capitals54c5,014$2,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,707.7816656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Capitals51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Stars45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec81…988ebacked Capitals55c4,976$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.721040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Capitals55c4,898$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.739254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Capitals52c4,669$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.885735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Capitals55c4,540$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4971428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Stars45c3,925$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.661,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Stars46c3,562$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.8660337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Capitals51c3,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Stars48c3,500$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.978134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Capitals55c3,346$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.533764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Capitals51c3,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Stars48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Capitals53c2,935$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.6493953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Capitals53c2,800$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48422946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Capitals52c2,630$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.624654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Capitals51c2,400$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22410848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Stars59c2,330$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.913,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Capitals51c2,279$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.812,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Stars46c2,244$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.3248050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Capitals52c2,125$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.962352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Capitals52c2,110$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.213147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Stars50c2,105$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.4655446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Capitals51c2,078$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.7879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Stars49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8215145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed Capitals51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Capitals51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.996855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Stars49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9712041.7%50 W · 70 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Capitals10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.991,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Stars45c1,962$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.19052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals51c1,931$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.881,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Capitals54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Capitals53c1,740$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.1854047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Capitals53c1,535$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.5360249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Capitals38c1,498$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.2634538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d2…eb89backed Stars63c1,457$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1a…f570backed Capitals54c1,400$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e4c…a3a1backed Stars45c1,366$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Capitals51c1,334$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.345349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Stars49c1,332$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.3261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Stars49c1,316$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1245955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…bfa6backed Capitals54c1,300$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94ea…f2dabacked Capitals25c1,270$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3205536.4%20 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Capitals52c1,246$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6481442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Capitals51c1,246$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4683149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Stars49c1,233$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.3341248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f9…496dbacked Stars48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d92…c0fcbacked Stars48c1,195$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf72…5a5cbacked Capitals52c1,195$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e8…5442backed Stars48c1,195$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x046f…5d02backed Stars48c1,185$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+70%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02da…91e7backed Stars48c1,175$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd8…0b03backed Capitals55c1,164$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae95…92fbbacked Capitals52c1,155$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9d…db5bbacked Stars48c1,155$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce7…8cedbacked Stars48c1,155$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+52.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca6d…746ebacked Capitals52c1,155$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9a…7e51backed Stars48c1,150$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc11b…e7e4backed Capitals52c1,150$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+78.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8812…fad1backed Stars48c1,150$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc02f…8fbbbacked Capitals52c1,150$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+54%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6954…27dfbacked Stars48c1,150$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241b…ce76backed Capitals52c1,145$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f1…8939backed Stars48c1,145$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.4650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9b…ea25backed Stars48c1,140$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb551…bca2backed Capitals52c1,140$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+36.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d6…3882backed Capitals52c1,130$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.6825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3193…9fefbacked Stars48c1,130$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x032b…a80abacked Capitals52c1,130$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cab…9ed7backed Stars48c1,130$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.66100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Stars49c1,118$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.9620951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.