NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2effe62d482046f5ebf56f2b7750d1c365367b7d768bb4c464b8f622b999d827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 40,557$19,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,165.94 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 39,314$20,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,587.73 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 4,191$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.68 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,172$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 49c | 2,032$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 51c | 1,615$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.83 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 1,459$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.36 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 47c | 1,228$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.06 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 47c | 981$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.07 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Under | 54c | 514.48$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 46c | 474$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 54c | 463.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 459.69$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 299.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 53c | 211.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 187$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Over | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 53c | 112.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Under | 55c | 105.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 96.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 65.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…094abacked Under | 53c | 62.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 60.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 47c | 54.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…c652backed Over | 47c | 52.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 38c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…0e3fbacked Under | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…cd2ebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Stars won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. CapitalsStars won
- Stars vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.