TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$661,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$676,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $661,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed New York Yankees22c66,364$14,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,294.256445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Athletics35c65,317$22,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,456.2621040%84 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Athletics78c62,060$48,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,724.085244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed New York Yankees65c33,850$22,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,002.532152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed New York Yankees19c30,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Athletics18c25,432$4,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,874.6918056.1%101 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked New York Yankees65c24,973$16,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,268.845747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees9c24,843$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked New York Yankees55c21,015$11,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,554.3221656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics50c18,918$9,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,437.021,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked New York Yankees22c16,410$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.254152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked New York Yankees64c9,244$5,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,916.1812754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees64c9,015$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,800.325,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Yankees66c7,863$5,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,160.5836649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Athletics34c6,435$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,247.3253150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees56c6,369$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.382,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked New York Yankees52c6,343$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,292.5510544.8%47 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees43c5,642$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.298,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked New York Yankees21c5,243$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.5146239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics36c5,160$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.351,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0715…c2d3backed New York Yankees65c4,952$3,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked New York Yankees65c4,797$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.129554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed New York Yankees65c4,062$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.5651756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed New York Yankees63c3,911$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.067048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics28c3,752$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.994,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees65c3,623$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.831,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees54c3,126$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.361,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed New York Yankees65c3,045$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.053060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed New York Yankees79c3,013$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.3631039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked New York Yankees63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.9823052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b83…f841backed New York Yankees64c2,782$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.192755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked New York Yankees47c2,490$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.7917768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31e0…b09dbacked Athletics52c2,350$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Yankees58c2,284$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.41,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Athletics36c2,193$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.5614340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics55c2,151$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.7870735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed New York Yankees57c2,136$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.191,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics35c2,134$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.426,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf972…853fbacked Athletics44c2,130$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Athletics60c2,073$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.4185235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed New York Yankees65c2,003$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.2427451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked New York Yankees65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Athletics36c1,992$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.626653%35 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked New York Yankees59c1,746$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.8945246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Athletics36c1,735$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.2213254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed New York Yankees62c1,714$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.382466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked New York Yankees63c1,699$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.1834452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Athletics23c1,682$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.2116947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked New York Yankees70c1,559$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.228045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics55c1,537$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.125,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed New York Yankees64c1,535$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.2823357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2d…8622backed New York Yankees65c1,506$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9792352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics34c1,491$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9832,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Athletics34c1,407$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.0355541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed New York Yankees60c1,361$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.7315753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed New York Yankees47c1,355$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed New York Yankees62c1,309$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.961,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics28c1,221$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees64c1,164$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.216,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Yankees21c1,148$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2391,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics49c1,144$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.823,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Yankees76c1,106$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.821,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed New York Yankees72c1,096$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.7451555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed New York Yankees45c1,090$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.3210847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed New York Yankees57c1,013$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.394656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4c…f5bdbacked New York Yankees65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Athletics33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67033864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics70c994.12$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.91,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked New York Yankees54c972.4$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.15435.2%19 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked New York Yankees71c962.95$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.692245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed New York Yankees70c959.24$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.41,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302a…74e6backed New York Yankees63c931.47$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.671040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees70c914.88$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.351,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed New York Yankees34c914.44$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.374450%22 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed New York Yankees21c895$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5524040.8%98 W · 142 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b89…0d9cbacked New York Yankees45c879.91$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.165226.9%14 W · 38 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-48.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbe93…3638backed New York Yankees33c873$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.942755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Athletics39c867.18$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0226857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked New York Yankees45c854.08$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1641847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Athletics36c801.33$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.8510842.6%46 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33fc…dc88backed New York Yankees6c784.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0522457.1%128 W · 96 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed New York Yankees65c777.36$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.284158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked New York Yankees71c767.79$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.5213361.7%82 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Athletics15c760.98$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.8436440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Athletics78c759.17$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0913441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Athletics45c742.26$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.781,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f28…9133backed New York Yankees68c737.33$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.16922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb75…c9b5backed Athletics34c718.46$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.191850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Athletics32c718.38$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.47051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked New York Yankees65c687.85$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.122546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Athletics30c679.13$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.3350860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked New York Yankees43c676.34$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.193743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad8…8a2cbacked New York Yankees66c593.7$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.843948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Yankees65c579.57$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed New York Yankees67c579.07$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3815847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Athletics77c572.66$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1430750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics36c560$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.31,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed New York Yankees31c551.86$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4627146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c7b…9c3abacked New York Yankees15c551.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.573145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.