TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,035,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$951,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,035,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 782 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12af…3c82backed Yes30c62,410$18,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,578.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No51c55,821$28,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,227.8425337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9595…7a62backed Yes1c38,246$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes41c35,000$14,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,450.3460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48dd…e8b6backed Yes50c33,078$16,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,578.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes49c31,293$15,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,432.168237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes48c30,825$14,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,777.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b11…de6abacked Yes0c23,487$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3f…3badbacked Yes46c22,207$10,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,214.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x970e…7ae4backed Yes1c19,230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1f…50f3backed Yes0c18,723$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes50c15,721$7,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,803.768932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4647…d9a1backed Yes3c12,099$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes46c12,035$5,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,584.385628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No50c11,482$5,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,715.8813334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…cb2abacked No72c11,458$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,208.33540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3da…1ccebacked Yes15c10,654$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked No60c9,699$5,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,876.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes7c9,674$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.53714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No51c8,368$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,104.331353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes38c7,505$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.97128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes3c7,125$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.914327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed No55c7,024$3,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.67825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa9…b675backed Yes1c6,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes3c6,918$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.369613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…01bfbacked Yes1c6,857$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No55c6,556$3,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.9743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c6,486$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.0656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes43c6,453$2,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796.588143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No60c6,277$3,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.826756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No61c6,239$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.916633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x991e…fc54backed Yes42c6,087$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02b…a35cbacked Yes8c6,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes16c5,704$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.812025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+284.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No50c5,666$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.2818036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked No66c5,587$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.031266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc547…01babacked Yes6c5,551$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.18156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-89.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No59c5,546$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.525843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No79c5,454$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.853636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes43c5,130$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.96030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No53c5,038$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5947…c7dcbacked Yes43c4,990$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+221.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7d…24fcbacked Yes0c4,981$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40fa…bd0fbacked Yes12c4,428$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…9ff4backed Yes50c4,368$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfb…cd4fbacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…4ca8backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3995…6003backed Yes27c3,630$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes33c3,603$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c3,600$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.9754934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c3,529$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.5688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c3,393$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.5552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ec…e521backed Yes0c3,256$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd597…353cbacked Yes10c3,240$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes49c3,208$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.4630233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf922…c778backed Yes13c3,009$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked No59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5780…a6dbbacked Yes46c2,991$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes42c2,802$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.62540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No51c2,800$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.9824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bf…5a18backed Yes18c2,751$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked No64c2,731$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.883336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes24c2,686$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.816612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…f879backed Yes40c2,631$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No59c2,563$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.219750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed No71c2,525$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.441233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No56c2,490$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.6332255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb156…86d7backed Yes1c2,465$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee9…78d0backed Yes39c2,451$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94aa…024ebacked Yes41c2,438$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes38c2,400$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.5414947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes45c2,368$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.9418216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x518f…9563backed No66c2,328$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes51c2,302$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.068555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9299…293cbacked Yes1c2,274$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd602…e15cbacked No52c2,173$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f4…8ea6backed Yes3c2,148$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed Yes1c2,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eeb…568dbacked Yes48c2,095$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.761030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5342…57bcbacked Yes56c2,029$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes38c2,028$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.4410122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes26c2,005$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6936742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188b…3989backed Yes1c2,002$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No52c2,000$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.81526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes35c2,000$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.6810037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No51c2,000$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.37828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No60c1,961$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.121838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f26…5132backed Yes2c1,954$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No16c1,874$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.162548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes6c1,800$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.791625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes46c1,770$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.4731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No69c1,768$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.112142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…a330backed No59c1,768$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No57c1,755$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.817618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4997…6b67backed Yes1c1,719$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…8f06backed Yes49c1,700$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1834…051ebacked No49c1,700$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b6…cc14backed Yes41c1,694$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No51c1,679$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.2119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.