World Politics · resolved market
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ebb02ae6572b074819b1ebff27687bea9b98204602550dbae746ad858a523f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4b4…6fadbacked Yes | 0c | 35,277$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,706$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36d…af97backed Yes | 1c | 12,680$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 11,954$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 6c | 9,354$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.26 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,062$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 6,199$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 5,112$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,886$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 4,589$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…c60abacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked Yes | 3c | 3,937$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,893$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…e158backed Yes | 2c | 3,650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…134bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,301$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4147backed Yes | 1c | 3,278$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 3,073$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,878$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,653$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,620$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,366$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…f8a5backed Yes | 4c | 2,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,267$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 2,163$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,157$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e82…470fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,988$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,885$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,876$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,780$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…d2fabacked Yes | 7c | 1,733$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,658$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 1,412$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,308$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…833dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,233$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…ce5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 1,011$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 980$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 2c | 963.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 2c | 926.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 9c | 899.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 859.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…c7c4backed Yes | 2c | 776.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719e…0a21backed Yes | 8c | 730$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…3ee4backed Yes | 3c | 698.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 675.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 655.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc958…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 654.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…51f6backed Yes | 2c | 597.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes | 10c | 592.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed Yes | 6c | 544.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +219%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 9c | 500.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +446.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 6c | 436.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 8c | 297.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…815dbacked Yes | 5c | 296.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 4c | 290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +855%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…edd9backed Yes | 15c | 105.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…5298backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António Filipe win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Catarina Martins win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will José Cardoso win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuela Magno win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Paulo Portas win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Raul Perestrello win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Rui Moreira win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Ângela Maryah win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.