Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b3ef22de31f27ed270809ce8888c87070971a8142e4d8cd57bfe3f696cb19a

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $359,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $295,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,891 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc547…01babacked Yes	0c	36,085$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes	2c	14,215$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.57	182	14.8%27 W · 155 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf36d…af97backed Yes	1c	9,838$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	14c	9,726$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325.09	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	8,367$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	166	4.2%7 W · 159 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b4…6fadbacked Yes	0c	8,062$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	2c	7,665$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.63	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Yes	46c	6,459$2,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,994.68	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	+144.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	11c	6,254$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.73	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes	12c	6,060$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.45	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes	1c	5,105$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	133	34.6%46 W · 87 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5947…c7dcbacked Yes	52c	5,089$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+221.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,918$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.53	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,810$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.08	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes	17c	4,659$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.28	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+51%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e82…470fbacked Yes	0c	4,603$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	2c	4,469$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.31	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x053d…e70fbacked Yes	1c	4,383$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes	1c	4,235$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	3,876$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.23	77	2.6%2 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	0c	3,576$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e7…3d34backed Yes	2c	3,502$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	25c	3,340$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.75	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	27c	3,154$859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.28	182	16.5%30 W · 152 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	69c	2,918$2,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$902.92	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked Yes	1c	2,719$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	2,606$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.78	115	2.6%3 W · 112 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…c60abacked Yes	1c	2,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9595…7a62backed Yes	0c	2,464$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	53c	2,400$1,277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,122.83	150	26%39 W · 111 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	2,350$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.34	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	44c	2,276$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.04	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6452…616dbacked Yes	55c	2,197$1,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,198.38	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06f…e95cbacked Yes	1c	2,097$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes	16c	2,055$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.07	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72bf…ecc3backed Yes	44c	2,033$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…de28backed Yes	1c	1,992$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed No	66c	1,835$1,207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.77	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed Yes	17c	1,694$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.61	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed39…60dcbacked Yes	52c	1,629$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…1a83backed Yes	1c	1,612$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc1…5a7abacked Yes	1c	1,603$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8df5…e945backed Yes	26c	1,557$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	58c	1,542$899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.51	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,459$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.83	211	7.1%15 W · 196 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31d…f8a5backed Yes	7c	1,347$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes	17c	1,281$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.41	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	1,186$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a4…ba17backed Yes	51c	1,176$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.07	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…b51bbacked Yes	2c	1,020$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	22c	1,005$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.4	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes	19c	1,000$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.95	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	23cpaid	+446.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	26c	930.4$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.92	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	799.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+117.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	67c	780.12$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.21	260	52.3%136 W · 124 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	21c	764.62$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.57	110	39.1%43 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…833dbacked Yes	2c	749.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	61c	693.98$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.84	170	37.6%64 W · 106 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed Yes	33c	674.49$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	24cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes	2c	664.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d3b…7654backed Yes	52c	656.08$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f6…15dcbacked Yes	16c	638.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	66c	626.28$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.27	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	28c	613.2$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.29	449	21.2%95 W · 354 L	-21.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No	62c	601.44$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.93	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	10c	600.46$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.14	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	600$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	16c	599.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	247	36.8%91 W · 156 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No	47c	594.02$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.55	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	37c	556$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.87	103	31.1%32 W · 71 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes	39c	525.98$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.83	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x534a…0575backed Yes	25c	508.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.7	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes	34c	500$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.0wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	12c	497$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Yes	46c	485.03$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe072…a9bcbacked Yes	43c	463.25$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	17c	458.37$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.51	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd8…9b58backed No	72c	439.88$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.7	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	17c	424.05$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.09	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed Yes	52c	410$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.4	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa0…e82fbacked Yes	49c	409.72$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	60c	405.97$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.55	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6181…ad60backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No	48c	376$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.52	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	19cpaid	+126%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c96…70e5backed Yes	7c	348.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes	34c	317.42$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+6.1wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+93.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+108.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes	41c	300$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	134	46.3%62 W · 72 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	48c	270.83$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x378d…0271backed Yes	13c	269.23$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0280…b1a0backed Yes	27c	258.22$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe336…44dcbacked Yes	53c	257$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.36	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes	46c	254.82$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.41	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58db…3fd1backed Yes	4c	251$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	15c	230.04$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…6275backed Yes	24c	210$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd47…497bbacked Yes	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x016c…ae19backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7775…3bc8backed Yes	17c	193.27$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event