World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f6baae89c397a54b642176324cdf622c084a9331601e41b2cba19dde38e62c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $504,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 6c | 78,806$4,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.96 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 4c | 51,482$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…1421backed Yes | 0c | 12,669$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…f863backed Yes | 0c | 10,890$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 8,678$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.21 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 3c | 7,667$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.35 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,500$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 6c | 7,395$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 8c | 7,331$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.45 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 6,614$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.67 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 5,362$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…7a62backed Yes | 4c | 5,271$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 5,103$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…3989backed Yes | 0c | 5,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,025$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.3 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,868$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.46 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 5c | 4,865$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…8063backed Yes | 13c | 4,851$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked Yes | 7c | 4,620$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 4,599$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.25 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 2c | 4,243$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,235$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.84 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,184$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.81 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,711$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,532$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.71 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e82…470fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,492$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 3,252$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 3,127$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…4bd8backed Yes | 5c | 3,052$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 3,040$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 4c | 2,650$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,399$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f6…15dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,193$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 2,077$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,776$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,715$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,710$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…3a7bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,694$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a44…0743backed Yes | 3c | 1,675$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…d903backed Yes | 4c | 1,672$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 1,640$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,633$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,620$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 1,605$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,604$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,513$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…a915backed Yes | 7c | 1,410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,388$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,345$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…ccbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,284$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,270$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…ef06backed Yes | 9c | 1,264$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,256$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…b946backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,215$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +284.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 5c | 1,211$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 3c | 1,173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…32a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…4f9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,094$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,074$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 7c | 999.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…4eacbacked Yes | 6c | 916.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…0882backed Yes | 7c | 906.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +290.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 899.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…c4a3backed Yes | 3c | 862.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c0…10a8backed Yes | 13c | 854.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 4c | 787.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 708.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 13c | 695.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 5c | 689$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 688.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 657.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…d5bbbacked Yes | 11c | 645.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50de…bd8cbacked Yes | 8c | 610.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3770backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 11c | 599.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 598.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 593.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…2d44backed Yes | 12c | 585.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 3c | 580.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 3c | 579.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…6577backed Yes | 5c | 563.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…42bdbacked Yes | 4c | 552.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…3e18backed Yes | 9c | 543.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…9d69backed Yes | 9c | 535.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 5c | 523.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…6c12backed Yes | 8c | 519.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…f764backed Yes | 6c | 503.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 484.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António Filipe win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
- Will Catarina Martins win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will José Cardoso win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Manuela Magno win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Paulo Portas win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Raul Perestrello win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Rui Moreira win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Ângela Maryah win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.