Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55f70d57892eba13b084284976b5af3eec9299b2f612ef6f781602d3f88881f2

Rebuilt 43 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $740,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $811,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $740,603 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 499 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes	49c	31,458$15,332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,125.86	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	30c	26,869$7,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,897.7	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	65c	23,221$15,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,192.28	100	37%37 W · 63 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9baa…6905backed No	1c	15,082$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	61c	8,194$4,982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,981.51	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes	64c	8,081$5,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,938.3	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.34per pick	52cpaid	+98%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes	47c	7,215$3,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,818.93	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	43c	6,565$2,818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,818.36	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed No	44c	6,032$2,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,633.53	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes	30c	5,529$1,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,887.84	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5947…c7dcbacked Yes	10c	5,291$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,742.39	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+221.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes	80c	5,227$4,169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,058.49	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	23c	5,223$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,222.4	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48dd…e8b6backed No	55c	5,185$2,854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,854.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1b…f92bbacked No	0c	5,120$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No	0c	5,005$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	56c	5,002$2,811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,190.34	80	35%28 W · 52 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes	5c	5,000$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,774.93	182	14.8%27 W · 155 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes	74c	4,977$3,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,290.29	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed Yes	75c	4,814$3,628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,185.89	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes	72c	4,690$3,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,307.57	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No	20c	4,510$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.54	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+284.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	75c	4,193$3,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,032.88	247	36.8%91 W · 156 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No	32c	4,035$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,290.92	101	22.8%23 W · 78 L	-9.5wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	31c	4,003$1,233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,233.15	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	11c	3,884$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,437.76	150	26%39 W · 111 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No	5c	3,683$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.59	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes	32c	3,610$1,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,453.24	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes	28c	3,591$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,596.11	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	+10.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa905…fcf1backed Yes	71c	3,389$2,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$984.27	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	19c	3,368$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.47	166	12.7%21 W · 145 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	5c	3,255$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,106.08	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed No	1c	3,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fd…aa33backed Yes	2c	3,153$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,075.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	3cpaid	+1,919.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	46c	3,114$1,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,687.78	284	34.2%97 W · 187 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703f…8063backed No	50c	3,101$1,547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,547.49	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	57c	2,978$1,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,265.89	549	34.6%190 W · 359 L	-37.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes	59c	2,941$1,746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,194.89	85	55.3%47 W · 38 L	+6.6wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No	7c	2,925$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.13	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes	77c	2,887$2,210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.49	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	40c	2,673$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.88	61	39.3%24 W · 37 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	12c	2,637$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,316.8	182	16.5%30 W · 152 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	32c	2,548$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.11	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	48c	2,535$1,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,312.34	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No	33c	2,500$835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$834.99	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	51c	2,473$1,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,221.72	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes	78c	2,400$1,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.57	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	28c	2,385$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,716.34	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	46c	2,175$1,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,169.09	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed53…b946backed Yes	22c	2,108$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,651.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf523…edb2backed Yes	65c	2,049$1,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.94	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	35cpaid	+97.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	27c	1,986$544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,441.88	170	37.6%64 W · 106 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed39…60dcbacked Yes	15c	1,814$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,539.58	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	25c	1,669$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,248.27	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0ca…0ec2backed No	44c	1,622$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.29	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,597$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520.31	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	49c	1,593$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$808.73	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed No	35c	1,500$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes	6c	1,443$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,358.96	239	21.3%51 W · 188 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	30c	1,441$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.45	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61b9…852abacked No	1c	1,366$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaad…aa81backed Yes	38c	1,327$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$826.9	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	64c	1,257$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.76	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cb…3e56backed Yes	7c	1,212$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,128.57	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+110%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…9630backed Yes	37c	1,205$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	4c	1,183$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,130.95	94	18.1%17 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59ff…c1ffbacked Yes	67c	1,179$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.94	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes	19c	1,178$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954.73	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	25cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	9c	1,151$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,048.66	261	39.8%104 W · 157 L	+16.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes	24c	1,147$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$868.73	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes	42c	1,125$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.51	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfa…4a1cbacked Yes	38c	1,102$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.31	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No	38c	1,100$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.35	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	65c	1,100$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.29	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	11c	1,089$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$973.84	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	33c	1,079$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.1	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes	55c	1,050$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.1	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes	45c	1,016$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.83	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Yes	5c	1,014$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$962.56	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	+144.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efa…5b20backed Yes	60c	1,009$608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88c8…8c31backed Yes	74c	1,008$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.45	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes	27c	1,006$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.38	86	57%49 W · 37 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes	4c	1,005$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$967.3	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+6.1wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+93.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	58c	1,000$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.49	134	44.8%60 W · 74 L	+17.1wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.99	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6186…e5c0backed Yes	56c	979.35$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.35	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.32per pick	43cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1d…3ee4backed Yes	26c	963.31$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$713.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+92.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50de…bd8cbacked Yes	40c	941.81$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1739backed Yes	62c	930.54$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.54	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d81…3610backed Yes	52c	903.29$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.71	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	4c	887.14$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$847.33	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	52c	882.61$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.74	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No	61c	878.61$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.56	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b4…b941backed No	47c	858.41$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	854.9$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$796.17	142	5.6%8 W · 134 L	-27.2wins	-0.19per pick	25cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes	54c	850$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.99	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes	60c	846.73$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.98	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	36c	816.73$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.05	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	34c	813.79$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.19	140	27.9%39 W · 101 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e1…ba69backed Yes	52c	805$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event