TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,060,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,134,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,060,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 760 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Canadiens38c474,108$180,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293,531.719848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning62c337,351$209,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209,157.7367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Lightning65c61,838$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,999.933354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Lightning62c50,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Lightning62c29,316$18,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,175.923046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lightning59c24,756$14,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,650.5213841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Lightning62c24,430$15,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,146.68240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Canadiens39c22,151$8,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,512.3975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens44c21,776$9,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,101.982236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Canadiens35c21,503$7,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,889.4940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lightning62c20,000$12,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,40026849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning62c19,544$12,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,117.281,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Lightning61c17,075$10,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,398.3133450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning62c17,067$10,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,511.881,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning54c15,014$8,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,133.9889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning60c13,211$7,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,970.021,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…fd60backed Canadiens39c12,497$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,648.431050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Canadiens37c12,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.7950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning61c11,167$6,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,811.8647951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lightning52c10,433$5,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,476.7858841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens37c10,057$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,326.181,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Lightning39c10,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.9711352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Canadiens21c9,072$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,122.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+365.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Canadiens39c8,432$3,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,126.8412950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Canadiens49c6,300$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,217.54459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Canadiens36c5,861$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,769.3133234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens51c5,815$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,872.9427044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens49c5,675$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.6533151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Lightning5c5,575$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.746448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Lightning61c5,555$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Lightning79c5,157$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.9740356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Lightning63c5,072$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.455453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Lightning55c5,032$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.7111251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Canadiens38c4,561$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.595446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens44c4,467$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.143,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked Canadiens50c4,268$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1341346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Canadiens42c4,220$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.8789249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Canadiens54c4,184$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Canadiens42c4,131$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,39644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Lightning63c3,943$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.385756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Canadiens38c3,801$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.3311151.4%57 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Canadiens40c3,765$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.8713850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Canadiens39c3,705$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.2832151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Canadiens55c3,704$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.2214946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8af…03c2backed Canadiens61c3,692$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.176750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens43c3,681$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.461,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Lightning64c3,357$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a9…5689backed Canadiens51c3,310$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Canadiens36c3,194$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.0199638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning55c3,160$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.662,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Lightning63c3,085$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.884247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Canadiens27c2,971$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.8727334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Lightning62c2,700$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6745253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Lightning65c2,612$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.417163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Canadiens61c2,583$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.0435551%181 W · 174 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Canadiens50c2,536$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.8819963.8%127 W · 72 L+27.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Canadiens38c2,534$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.888946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Canadiens39c2,470$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.865660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning62c2,344$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.0426750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Lightning61c2,335$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.9512654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed Canadiens54c2,188$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.431457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Canadiens53c2,179$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.386371.4%45 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Canadiens38c2,149$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.4761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Lightning58c2,017$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Lightning62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.9620450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Lightning46c1,997$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.6528447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Canadiens60c1,984$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.519562.1%59 W · 36 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning62c1,978$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.0162346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Canadiens60c1,952$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.85046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning55c1,924$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.821,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Lightning51c1,905$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.574151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning61c1,843$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.2230259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Lightning31c1,825$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.6816446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Lightning65c1,808$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Canadiens54c1,801$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.347051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Canadiens57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3821849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning62c1,686$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.162,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Lightning46c1,671$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.0927037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5695…f8edbacked Canadiens45c1,424$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.091566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+47%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Canadiens79c1,372$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.073043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens43c1,328$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.552,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Canadiens57c1,315$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.051,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canadiens37c1,300$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.1722043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe166…4f71backed Canadiens27c1,284$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.684346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Lightning49c1,218$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.842948.7%209 W · 220 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Lightning43c1,190$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.877258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens70c1,169$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.662,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Canadiens42c1,147$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.667244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x628f…5209backed Canadiens44c1,101$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.982744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Canadiens38c1,013$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.354526.7%12 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning57c1,007$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.8336948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Canadiens53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Canadiens71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2903969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb81a…4600backed Canadiens38c983.02$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+72.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Lightning61c979.66$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2510941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3411backed Lightning58c974.8$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Canadiens39c963.4$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.6720951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Canadiens57c960.51$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.875240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Lightning48c937.49$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45014837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens38c897.11$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.241,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.