NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa338faaedb392cb3a8f66ade4dbc75f3d152499b0afe3b14e0e619498511c5a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Under | 49c | 1,421$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 60c | 1,125$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 40c | 1,085$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,052$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.81 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 784.94$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.86 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Under | 47c | 394.61$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 45c | 241.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 76c | 237.47$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc99…ce7ebacked Under | 45c | 227.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 208.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 69c | 165.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 24c | 159.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Under | 42c | 97.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 40c | 71.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 25c | 63.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 57c | 57.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 24c | 55.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 60c | 51.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 51c | 51.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…fe36backed Over | 62c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 47c | 46.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 42.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Over | 48c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 75c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…1104backed Over | 80c | 30.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Over | 76c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 28.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 54c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 52c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…a0d9backed Over | 76c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…1df6backed Over | 76c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 79c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.