NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x043735e8c996072a4a756dadace2cb07729ff876eb02fc17ab7e3d88611d144d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 6c | 1,550$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…4879backed Under | 78c | 1,405$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 37c | 430.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 21c | 281.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 22c | 246.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 21c | 238.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 15c | 186.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 21c | 136.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 21c | 133.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 17c | 127.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Under | 77c | 77.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 71.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 17c | 69.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 77c | 64.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Under | 77c | 59.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 28c | 56.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…c532backed Under | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 46.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Under | 77c | 44.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 42.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Under | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 80c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Under | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…786dbacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 69c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Under | 80c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…3132backed Under | 73c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Under | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Under | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…1b68backed Under | 73c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.