NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf057cd1788217aa1b1d722c68c3868450bde2e8c325d6f8b54efcb5025c393ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens | 60c | 6,506$3,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.44 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Lightning | 40c | 4,355$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.08 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked Lightning | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Lightning | 40c | 1,097$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.82 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lightning | 40c | 879.6$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Lightning | 42c | 777.42$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Canadiens | 60c | 650.67$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.27 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Lightning | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 79c | 310.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Canadiens | 49c | 255.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Canadiens | 76c | 194.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Canadiens | 60c | 194.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Canadiens | 51c | 187.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Lightning | 25c | 185.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 40c | 183$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Lightning | 27c | 182.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 39c | 149.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 75c | 149.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…9a3abacked Canadiens | 61c | 134.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Lightning | 40c | 111.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Canadiens | 50c | 94.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Lightning | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 231 | 48.9%113 W · 118 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…1922backed Lightning | 24c | 78.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Canadiens | 61c | 64.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…fe36backed Canadiens | 50c | 64.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Lightning | 39c | 58.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…380bbacked Canadiens | 57c | 52.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Canadiens | 60c | 47.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Lightning | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Lightning | 49c | 39.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Canadiens | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…b21bbacked Canadiens | 60c | 38.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 59c | 34.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 43c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Canadiens | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Canadiens | 76c | 30.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 36c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Lightning | 43c | 29.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 55c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Lightning | 49c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Canadiens | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…65c5backed Canadiens | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.