NFL · resolved market
Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f3eb9b7dc84cea6be27b1383e76de528a4342dacff5de9db0d79837285c0b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7a8…f341backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 24c | 895$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…0e8cbacked Yes | 26c | 773.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 76c | 558$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…1fd5backed Yes | 19c | 514.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 25c | 449$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 75c | 449$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 402$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed No | 80c | 399.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 73c | 366$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 27c | 366$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 76c | 337$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…5423backed No | 26c | 193.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…abccbacked Yes | 12c | 155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 64c | 127.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…d188backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 17c | 99.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…914cbacked Yes | 28c | 88.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 84.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed No | 51c | 77.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…7f48backed No | 77c | 76.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 63c | 28.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe715…8b42backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.