NFL · resolved market
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8aacaef2f8e06004821f86b40e5a166cfe7009e85e2611640aa9a9c63cec562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 3c | 9,158$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 4c | 3,115$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 3c | 2,816$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 2,137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,013$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…610abacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 5c | 1,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…d936backed No | 3c | 1,397$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 1,250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812f…1903backed No | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 1c | 1,129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…ce8abacked No | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 1,036$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 3c | 1,033$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 4c | 999.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0908…0207backed No | 2c | 943.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…8b76backed No | 3c | 893.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 2c | 761.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0e…26afbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 3c | 736$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…669bbacked No | 4c | 732.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…00a7backed No | 3c | 707.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 650.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…01d4backed No | 3c | 615.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…f3d5backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db6…95a9backed No | 3c | 588.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…e80abacked No | 4c | 559.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 3c | 515.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 3c | 503.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1884…2218backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 3c | 480.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No | 3c | 437.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 422.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 3c | 419.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…3094backed No | 4c | 406.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…1e58backed No | 4c | 229.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 7c | 168.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e30…4f3abacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.