NFL · resolved market
Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa63d8e8f0b3276242cfab7a889959f7e868c31d8941d3da535a9671bc605e4f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 11c | 935$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 14c | 917$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 32c | 878.53$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 11c | 818$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…554dbacked Yes | 12c | 713.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 401.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 13c | 385$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623e…2797backed Yes | 42c | 322.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 11c | 310$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 71c | 206.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 186.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…0669backed Yes | 62c | 157$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 63c | 122.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a16…4905backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…7fbcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…64a2backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 92.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 44c | 90.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6105…cb51backed Yes | 19c | 78.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 22c | 70.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…f0b0backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 62c | 65.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed No | 80c | 58.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed No | 75c | 55.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…d71fbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 60c | 49.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…b4bfbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…45a3backed Yes | 52c | 47.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…5126backed Yes | 43c | 39.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…3f5bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e73…b782backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…05afbacked Yes | 50c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.