TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54f0…7a91backed No2c5,634$122 inLost-$121.56340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ed6…1249backed No1c2,857$20 inLost-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a4…a4babacked No1c2,710$15 inLost-$15.23110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No2c2,223$49 inLost-$49.381729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No13c1,913$258 inLost-$257.752227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,463$34 inLost-$34.125679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,268$16 inLost-$16.046030%18 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c838.19$13 inLost-$13.318213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No7c719.97$51 inLost-$50.96166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c500$10 inLost-$107731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No20c394$79 inLost-$79.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No10c340$34 inLost-$346230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes72c262$189 inWon+$72.5810346.6%48 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…ef76backed Yes79c252.45$199 inWon+$53.45580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No16c239$38 inLost-$38.061275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes79c152$120 inWon+$31.921118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33e8…669bbacked No14c142.86$20 inLost-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed No33c130$43 inLost-$42.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No32c125$40 inLost-$408958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No20c80$16 inLost-$168037.5%30 W · 50 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No19c67$13 inLost-$12.732653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes62c63.27$39 inWon+$24.151080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No30c39.99$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa63f…1da9backed Yes70c37.78$26 inWon+$11.33366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe070…2741backed Yes80c20$16 inWon+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.