NFL · resolved market
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5e3f1526732c714fd1877ea4e25e39092b027573d5d5d433c53da0854834ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 13c | 6,270$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.83 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 8c | 3,009$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 2,716$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.31 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 73c | 1,446$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 1,169$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.99 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 622.5$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 78c | 563$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…73cfbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 430.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 239.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…18b4backed Yes | 15c | 166.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…d06ebacked Yes | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…d26cbacked Yes | 12c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…b813backed Yes | 11c | 104.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…7a08backed Yes | 19c | 102.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…565bbacked Yes | 45c | 100.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 14c | 89.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 83.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 23c | 72.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…d384backed Yes | 19c | 53.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…c7e7backed Yes | 70c | 28.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.