NFL · resolved market
Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6960f9e7b73d46afea82449bf1865a74b5f43b55001c5c7b6134f709f68ba090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 38c | 19,296$7,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,401.92 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 58c | 11,998$6,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,020.23 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 36c | 8,336$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,983.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 64c | 6,932$4,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 39c | 6,554$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.3 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 65c | 5,517$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 4,813$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 57c | 1,327$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e5…470dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,318$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 53c | 1,308$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.05 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 21c | 1,262$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 63c | 1,151$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 32c | 1,119$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,045$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 33c | 1,033$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1d…fe6dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 68c | 941$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 58c | 906.42$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 54c | 904$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 79c | 869$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 38c | 847.3$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 63c | 809.98$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.59 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 21c | 731$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 67c | 701$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 698.97$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 78c | 524$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 44c | 521.48$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.83 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 79c | 508$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 502.97$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.94 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 36c | 499.7$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 34c | 492$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 66c | 492$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 59c | 490.52$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed No | 78c | 446.27$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 40c | 437.85$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 61c | 431.78$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes | 36c | 430$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Yes | 34c | 417.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 60c | 413.69$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 79c | 408$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 31c | 399.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed No | 60c | 390.41$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed No | 61c | 361.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 345.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 67c | 327$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 21c | 318$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 79c | 318$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 66c | 316.45$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 73c | 311.97$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…c3c8backed No | 70c | 280.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 276.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 69c | 268.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…5afabacked Yes | 40c | 249.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 44c | 244.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 243.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 35c | 235.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…6d1dbacked No | 72c | 220$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes | 69c | 220$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed Yes | 48c | 210.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 79c | 208$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 181.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 33c | 173.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 33c | 172.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…7a55backed Yes | 60c | 167.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 69c | 161.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 64c | 161.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 160.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 68c | 158$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 54c | 152$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…28e2backed Yes | 29c | 150.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 65c | 150.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…8f53backed Yes | 34c | 146.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 38c | 146$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…7774backed No | 67c | 145.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked No | 70c | 142.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed No | 66c | 141.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed No | 60c | 139.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked No | 66c | 137.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed No | 66c | 136.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 136$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 132.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed No | 71c | 129$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 67c | 118.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed No | 28c | 118.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 68c | 104.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…c6b0backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…64a2backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 54c | 93.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 73c | 90.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 65c | 89.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed No | 67c | 82.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.