TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$397,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$374,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9385…d111backed No7c27,317$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc6…e106backed No1c16,326$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cf…3bbabacked No7c13,407$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc573…270dbacked No4c12,270$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aed…c476backed No7c10,875$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598d…7bc9backed No3c10,324$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc6…f91fbacked No3c9,049$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840b…86acbacked No2c8,998$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked No9c8,270$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No3c7,870$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac5…590ebacked No3c6,373$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-82.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes55c6,337$3,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7497…bc74backed No3c5,922$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No3c5,688$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.961225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No20c5,523$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.795024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked No3c5,436$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No30c4,980$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.493735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a02…5fe6backed No2c4,805$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c4,681$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.555679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a0…bbcfbacked No2c4,557$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…28e2backed No5c4,448$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…75f2backed No7c4,413$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked No1c4,124$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No1c3,979$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.32646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc28e…79fabacked No2c3,875$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No14c3,756$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.662532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No3c3,661$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf011…9023backed No3c3,281$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bca…05d8backed No2c3,186$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…ebbabacked No4c3,154$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No3c2,957$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.72340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…4a6cbacked No3c2,859$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a4…a4babacked No1c2,793$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.48110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked No3c2,665$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8590%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c2,362$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.218213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c52…6c4ebacked No2c2,302$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6780…f870backed No3c2,269$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c2,250$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56030%18 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa331…f2d2backed No2c2,186$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fd…93c0backed No3c1,925$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45e…6636backed No1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c1,812$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.651444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,801$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3223024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed No2c1,656$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.857631.6%24 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No30c1,515$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.8232347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135c…f754backed No2c1,456$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bed…57a2backed No3c1,430$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9496…0532backed No4c1,393$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9354…85fcbacked No1c1,388$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…79f6backed No4c1,167$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-64.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked Yes55c1,086$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.776100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No9c1,054$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No50c1,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No45c939.25$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.662227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffb…5a1dbacked No2c852.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c9…0b3bbacked No3c833.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b2…46e4backed No2c823.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0680…0141backed No2c724$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked No3c649.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6c…a5d3backed No3c550$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268c…f664backed No4c510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No7c500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.783923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…48a9backed No5c494$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedda…3f54backed No5c491.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0908…0207backed No4c483.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff1…c85ebacked No3c483.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No3c433.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ef…534fbacked No17c410$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714e…c623backed No7c405.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No39c393.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…00a7backed No5c370.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes63c364.57$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes71c350$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaced…e23abacked Yes63c315.42$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.422250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1116…b2f4backed No10c297$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed No43c287.01$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7793…805cbacked No44c280$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes73c272.01$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.381080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No37c255$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.151338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No9c188.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9936826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes54c181.63$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8410346.6%48 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No14c160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.762352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes57c142.25$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.691747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes65c129.49$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc862…3fb2backed Yes58c100.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No49c96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…0669backed Yes65c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…669bbacked No49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No41c74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.342412.5%3 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-54.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3731439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes57c52.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7e…b9a2backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…5afabacked No29c48.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.