NFL · resolved market
Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae70829e6d235042e4dea8df55e8308c3fb8d7c30e14c98bb5e230acc9be29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0e0…1acebacked Yes | 9c | 2,278$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…60c9backed Yes | 6c | 1,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 78c | 1,501$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.29 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 4c | 1,473$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 1,138$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…0669backed Yes | 18c | 1,116$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…6bd7backed Yes | 22c | 750.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…5008backed Yes | 3c | 720$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…d19dbacked Yes | 27c | 646.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 65c | 602.01$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.3 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…eef8backed Yes | 26c | 540.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…5126backed Yes | 39c | 442.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb839…5885backed No | 61c | 419.33$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 349.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 13c | 345.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 70c | 335$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…2de3backed Yes | 6c | 313.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…1c99backed Yes | 32c | 312.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe715…8b42backed Yes | 8c | 288.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 283.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 282.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…f073backed Yes | 5c | 277.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Yes | 8c | 229.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…455abacked Yes | 6c | 208.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 6c | 189.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…4669backed Yes | 11c | 180.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…e650backed Yes | 24c | 170.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 65c | 165.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 147$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 138.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 15c | 135.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x269b…0a3fbacked Yes | 16c | 127.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…f322backed Yes | 28c | 107.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…dc91backed Yes | 15c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6105…cb51backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…7fbcbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 58c | 89.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…ef45backed Yes | 28c | 71.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…7414backed Yes | 22c | 69.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…2655backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…3698backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…40a1backed Yes | 40c | 30.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…fce4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 73c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.