NFL · resolved market
Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7a1b2055439f26d38f9a1b65805cb6b2b1bcbb71439ce957a2ba30d3d1330c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 19,049$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.05 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…88c0backed Yes | 42c | 7,531$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 1,816$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 21c | 944$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 14c | 812$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 61c | 800$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 9c | 792.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 14c | 760$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 24c | 750$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 615.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 80c | 587$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 575$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 566.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…28e2backed Yes | 8c | 559.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…d95bbacked Yes | 15c | 534.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…57e2backed Yes | 20c | 485.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 476$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.04 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80be…6047backed Yes | 9c | 410.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 67c | 346.76$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 79c | 342$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Yes | 34c | 299$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…8b27backed Yes | 22c | 252.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 246.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 242.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 34c | 164.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…4669backed Yes | 12c | 163.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 154$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 10c | 151.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 80c | 151.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 9c | 150.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 9c | 148.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…5614backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ea…0a95backed Yes | 12c | 136.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 127.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…56ffbacked Yes | 20c | 126.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…e436backed Yes | 26c | 113.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0a…0207backed Yes | 26c | 95.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7498backed Yes | 20c | 58.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061b…a019backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 33c | 48.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…a400backed Yes | 24c | 43.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 42c | 34.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.