NFL · resolved market
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x973fb4cc41ddeb8d3d4c144ae6fdd2ee9cd483f1fadbafd41e3172c3904b5084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 10c | 10,904$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…141fbacked No | 29c | 10,000$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 2c | 9,640$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 72c | 4,853$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.45 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f34…d254backed Yes | 29c | 4,077$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 19c | 2,933$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 4c | 2,825$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…f754backed Yes | 73c | 2,775$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 26c | 2,497$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 16c | 2,347$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 77c | 2,257$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ef…39c1backed Yes | 54c | 2,084$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 52c | 2,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…ca83backed Yes | 79c | 1,989$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 79c | 1,810$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 26c | 1,741$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…c0d6backed No | 20c | 1,418$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 1,253$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.54 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 64c | 1,248$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes | 17c | 1,197$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +498.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…8f19backed No | 4c | 1,173$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 9c | 1,170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…e169backed No | 25c | 1,127$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 1,074$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.43 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked No | 3c | 1,039$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 15c | 990$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 14c | 975$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 28c | 904.81$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 15c | 893$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 2c | 877.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…e224backed No | 4c | 874.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 9c | 855.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 21c | 750$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 80c | 747.96$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 77c | 700$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 15c | 674$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 41c | 624.66$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…01d4backed No | 7c | 588.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…cacabacked Yes | 26c | 576.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 525.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 15c | 516$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 21c | 512.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc6…e106backed No | 20c | 508.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 24c | 497.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Yes | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 25c | 408$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 398.55$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c6…5215backed No | 10c | 392.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…a284backed No | 11c | 389.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 29c | 382.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.97 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 19c | 337.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 320.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.84 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Yes | 24c | 313.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…0220backed No | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…64a2backed Yes | 21c | 299.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…554dbacked Yes | 17c | 290$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b5…96dcbacked No | 10c | 289.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…da19backed No | 18c | 281.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 272.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 22c | 270.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed No | 79c | 262.81$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 15c | 261$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…3e29backed Yes | 24c | 253.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +320.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…e436backed No | 15c | 252.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 80c | 251.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 72c | 247.59$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…edb3backed Yes | 19c | 246.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 26c | 243.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…73cfbacked Yes | 73c | 225.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 71c | 214.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 16c | 211.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed No | 60c | 208.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…1a80backed Yes | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…7bc9backed Yes | 25c | 205.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 15c | 203.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 57c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 78c | 199.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 27c | 185.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…c0b2backed No | 28c | 178.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 29c | 161.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1068…cdbcbacked Yes | 25c | 158.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +184.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…9c78backed Yes | 68c | 157.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…233ebacked No | 16c | 157.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…abccbacked No | 77c | 151.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 15c | 150.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 75c | 145$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…9a84backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 12c | 135.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…da9dbacked Yes | 37c | 134.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…d645backed No | 60c | 130.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked No | 80c | 125.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…18b4backed Yes | 21c | 121.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961f…135cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.