TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,516
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,516 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe17…98e9backed No10c10,904$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.635750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a80…141fbacked No29c10,000$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No2c9,640$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes72c4,853$3,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.455276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7f34…d254backed Yes29c4,077$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9084100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+155.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No19c2,933$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.12646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed No4c2,825$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c6…f754backed Yes73c2,775$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No26c2,497$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe35a…e615backed No16c2,347$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes77c2,257$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.971275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x81ef…39c1backed Yes54c2,084$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.66850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No52c2,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.991338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb0…ca83backed Yes79c1,989$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No79c1,810$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No26c1,741$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a12…c0d6backed No20c1,418$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.441442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes58c1,253$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.547439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No64c1,248$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.511338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes17c1,197$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+498.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b4…8f19backed No4c1,173$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No9c1,170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ad…e169backed No25c1,127$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes78c1,074$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.435457.4%31 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50bd…962abacked No3c1,039$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.221560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes15c990$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.51450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes14c975$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+182.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No28c904.81$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes15c893$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed No2c877.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf964…e224backed No4c874.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-65.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed No9c855.53$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes21c750$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.21618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes80c747.96$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.244751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes77c700$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes15c674$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+101.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No41c624.66$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.871050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290a…01d4backed No7c588.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…cacabacked Yes26c576.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c525.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.291444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes15c516$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+233.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked No21c512.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.651450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc6…e106backed No20c508.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507533.3%25 W · 50 L-8.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No24c497.17$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.781080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Yes60c450$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed Yes25c408$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed No53c399.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes69c398.55$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1210731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c6…5215backed No10c392.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f2…a284backed No11c389.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes29c382.89$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.971717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes19c337.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c320.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.849947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02dc…a212backed Yes24c313.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+60.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62d1…0220backed No53c299.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.95837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81a8…64a2backed Yes21c299.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.28875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+65.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1c7…554dbacked Yes17c290$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b5…96dcbacked No10c289.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dbc…da19backed No18c281.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No20c272.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.935933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes22c270.86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed No79c262.81$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.68100%0 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes15c261$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+210.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3750…3e29backed Yes24c253.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+320.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cd…e436backed No15c252.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes80c251.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes72c247.59$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4263…edb3backed Yes19c246.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+129.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc5e…3873backed Yes26c243.65$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed50…73cfbacked Yes73c225.43$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No22c215$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes71c214.15$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes16c211.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed No60c208.11$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.481457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e4…1a80backed Yes29c206.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.91435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x598d…7bc9backed Yes25c205.24$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed No15c203.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No57c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.28958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes70c199.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No78c199.96$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.974436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes27c185.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.772240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf47f…c0b2backed No28c178.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d1…a379backed Yes29c172.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No29c161.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1068…cdbcbacked Yes25c158.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+184.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c26…9c78backed Yes68c157.81$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e8…233ebacked No16c157.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…abccbacked No77c151.98$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.522850%14 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No15c150.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.613438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes75c145$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.562070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2693…9a84backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No12c135.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Yes75c135$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.752931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb8d…da9dbacked Yes37c134.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c0…d645backed No60c130.31$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…b1fdbacked No80c125.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdea…18b4backed Yes21c121.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+62.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x961f…135cbacked Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.