Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bc660a4df5faeaee8e66d0e7bc4f2200b543340b7f7a5c83bfa1fecafa9ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,034,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,034,792 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 763,513$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.51 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…79abbacked No | 0c | 734,994$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed No | 0c | 707,833$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 650,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed No | 0c | 531,550$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…507abacked No | 0c | 500,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…a5bbbacked No | 1c | 496,099$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,234.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed No | 6c | 495,869$27,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,859.63 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…0519backed No | 0c | 460,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 1c | 360,291$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.69 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 299,995$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…3aeabacked No | 1c | 274,029$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed No | 0c | 259,719$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 2c | 246,637$5,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,961 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 230,007$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e2…c017backed No | 0c | 208,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…c3cabacked No | 0c | 203,380$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9445…00f3backed No | 0c | 190,901$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 0c | 183,435$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.29 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…c5babacked No | 0c | 168,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked No | 0c | 155,594$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.59 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…4670backed No | 0c | 155,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…b2cfbacked No | 0c | 155,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…2fe8backed No | 0c | 147,425$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…1c69backed No | 0c | 145,000$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed No | 0c | 135,292$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…631ebacked No | 0c | 135,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 0c | 134,990$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…0ed3backed No | 1c | 131,433$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 1c | 129,084$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.96 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 1c | 128,452$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.12 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed No | 1c | 123,922$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…eddbbacked No | 0c | 123,667$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 9c | 123,357$11,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,487.37 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed No | 0c | 120,669$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.54 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…12fbbacked No | 0c | 120,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…2f19backed No | 0c | 115,641$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadea…50f7backed No | 0c | 114,716$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 111,368$12,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,110 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…52f6backed No | 0c | 105,162$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed No | 1c | 102,694$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…4054backed No | 2c | 102,358$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…cb9cbacked No | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 1c | 98,690$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.22 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed No | 0c | 97,632$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 0c | 96,155$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed No | 2c | 90,033$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 2c | 86,932$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.69 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed No | 3c | 86,262$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b18…e516backed No | 0c | 81,059$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 5c | 80,262$3,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.26 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fd…8fa8backed No | 0c | 80,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b9…aa4fbacked No | 0c | 76,573$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…f49cbacked No | 1c | 76,000$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…32acbacked No | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…eed8backed No | 0c | 70,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 4c | 70,203$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.43 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…64ffbacked No | 0c | 65,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…d776backed No | 0c | 62,410$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…427abacked No | 7c | 60,497$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 0c | 60,033$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed No | 0c | 56,666$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…5be9backed No | 1c | 56,082$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 1c | 54,558$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…3d85backed No | 0c | 52,710$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…8545backed No | 1c | 52,231$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb35…ea7cbacked No | 0c | 50,038$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…b8f1backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 14c | 46,147$6,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,277.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…78c6backed No | 0c | 45,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…f1ecbacked No | 5c | 44,977$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 10c | 44,418$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,386.16 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…ec31backed No | 2c | 44,218$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…1553backed No | 0c | 42,550$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…bd29backed No | 1c | 41,529$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…0c61backed No | 0c | 41,510$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…c131backed No | 0c | 40,389$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 2c | 40,177$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked No | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…23c6backed No | 0c | 39,990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…56e7backed No | 0c | 39,082$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…2303backed No | 0c | 38,540$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed No | 8c | 37,197$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked No | 1c | 36,071$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 10c | 35,476$3,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.67 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…e70fbacked No | 1c | 34,862$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…5aaabacked No | 1c | 34,751$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…c30fbacked No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 7c | 33,332$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 1c | 33,040$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed No | 0c | 32,881$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…ffb0backed No | 0c | 30,520$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed No | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 5c | 30,000$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.62 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e2…4717backed No | 0c | 28,596$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 27,863$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,610.22 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.