TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,034,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,034,792 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e9…88e5backed No0c763,513$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.51110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9106…79abbacked No0c734,994$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd505…2774backed No0c707,833$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.67922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c650,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…a0d0backed No0c531,550$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8e…507abacked No0c500,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…a5bbbacked No1c496,099$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed No6c495,869$27,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,859.633240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d16…0519backed No0c460,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No1c360,291$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751.695626.8%15 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e72…cc9cbacked No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No0c299,995$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9910417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x89b9…3aeabacked No1c274,029$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.321050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e8…8676backed No0c259,719$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.521643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked No2c246,637$5,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,961623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed No0c230,007$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.011513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e2…c017backed No0c208,000$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0a…c3cabacked No0c203,380$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9445…00f3backed No0c190,901$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked No0c183,435$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.295516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7493…c5babacked No0c168,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked No0c155,594$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.597226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae3…4670backed No0c155,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497e…b2cfbacked No0c155,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab73…2fe8backed No0c147,425$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38dd…1c69backed No0c145,000$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d31…4421backed No0c135,292$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.71421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…631ebacked No0c135,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c134,990$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.993616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x490c…0ed3backed No1c131,433$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No1c129,084$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.962927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No1c128,452$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.1220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f0…c5c3backed No1c123,922$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.21110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eff…eddbbacked No0c123,667$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No9c123,357$11,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,487.3714227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed No0c120,669$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.543336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3b…12fbbacked No0c120,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfd…2f19backed No0c115,641$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…50f7backed No0c114,716$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No11c111,368$12,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,11035819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…52f6backed No0c105,162$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.862437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5dd…dda7backed No1c102,694$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60d…4054backed No2c102,358$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffe…cb9cbacked No0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No1c98,690$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.2211222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed No0c97,632$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked No0c96,155$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.04110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbc…9ed9backed No2c90,033$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e3…f341backed No2c86,932$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.6910549.5%52 W · 53 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0da3…e708backed No3c86,262$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.222015%3 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b18…e516backed No0c81,059$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No5c80,262$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,865.269613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fd…8fa8backed No0c80,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b9…aa4fbacked No0c76,573$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.111127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf223…f49cbacked No1c76,000$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4721030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e22…32acbacked No0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a3…eed8backed No0c70,250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No4c70,203$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.436735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a5…64ffbacked No0c65,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c5…d776backed No0c62,410$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc63…427abacked No7c60,497$4,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.61520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed No0c60,033$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcb…8709backed No0c56,666$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x794c…5be9backed No1c56,082$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed No1c54,558$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.645036%18 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x756a…3d85backed No0c52,710$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19a…8545backed No1c52,231$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb35…ea7cbacked No0c50,038$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…b8f1backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004055%22 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb416…c7a1backed No14c46,147$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,277.053545.7%16 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05c4…78c6backed No0c45,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1859…f1ecbacked No5c44,977$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked No10c44,418$4,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,386.164022.5%9 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+91.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c6c…ec31backed No2c44,218$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…1553backed No0c42,550$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ad…bd29backed No1c41,529$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d6…0c61backed No0c41,510$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x525d…c131backed No0c40,389$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No2c40,177$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.672352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked No0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+51.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2434…23c6backed No0c39,990$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb132…56e7backed No0c39,082$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+88.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa682…2303backed No0c38,540$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e09…ab25backed No8c37,197$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.841040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked No1c36,071$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.641811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9e…02b7backed No10c35,476$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.675046%23 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdb…e70fbacked No1c34,862$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.83933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked No1c34,751$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.68100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc72d…c30fbacked No0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked No7c33,332$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.38119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed No1c33,040$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.08875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed No0c32,881$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454b…ffb0backed No0c30,520$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed No0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+128.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed No5c30,000$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.622213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e2…4717backed No0c28,596$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c27,863$4,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,610.2289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.