TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,751 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7804…7025backed Yes71c7,283$5,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.772420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes76c2,310$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9221161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No24c2,109$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.1934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes70c2,077$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes75c1,750$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.642638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No27c1,598$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.342142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes70c1,353$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9314356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No32c1,154$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes68c732.52$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.181330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes62c718.8$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.064953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes68c699.35$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3315445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes66c640.68$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No35c587.23$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.276653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes66c556$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5421033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed No6c540$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c535.98$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No17c353.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.934245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Yes67c349.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb25…3c61backed Yes77c339.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No36c314.2$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.511250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…6f9fbacked No32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…6cb7backed No32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7d…1a60backed No32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…1f9bbacked No32c311$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6f…0fb5backed No32c311$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca6…b05cbacked No32c311$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Yes69c290.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes61c283.4$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7415232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8716544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db7…9fedbacked No32c238$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1731…ab65backed No32c236$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No11c231.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes72c229.83$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.496845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No33c220$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.723450%17 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c206.91$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.312150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes63c204$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.033357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No44c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.843857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e63…399abacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc86…e8c8backed No35c185$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes70c177.89$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.89850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No29c176.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.721553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…4feebacked No35c173$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No35c170.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.021145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c167.84$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0833238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5d…1ee0backed No35c163$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc2…6995backed No35c163$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b74…6698backed No35c162$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a9…5874backed No35c159$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…2804backed No35c158$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe2…bb3fbacked No22c155.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.84825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes76c155$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.877534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc8…050ebacked Yes78c152$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4619…3f91backed Yes77c150.34$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.58966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ad…06e0backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1532…9118backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…b293backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47a…9a41backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d9…14b3backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939c…3d8fbacked Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36c…17d2backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e9…4a68backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2965…8bc2backed Yes68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55f7…fa0bbacked Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…b191backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67a…8536backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb5…17cebacked Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b4…f55bbacked Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e7…9692backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5671…0a1fbacked Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb7…681cbacked No32c144$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes69c143.16$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9de0…1886backed No27c140.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b08…6302backed No35c138$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes73c137.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes74c134.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.82771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c134.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.169010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ab3…04d0backed No31c131$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No41c126$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.663154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa706…42f0backed Yes75c122.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.251040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa87d…a82cbacked No30c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1078…2a62backed No32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes78c109.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.22128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes72c101.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8145035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.086841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe151…a852backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407425.7%19 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3127222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes68c98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a4…c501backed Yes65c98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08d9…4d7cbacked Yes65c97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8aa…df1bbacked Yes65c97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…8042backed Yes65c95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f3…2ecabacked Yes65c95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.