Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c4eed6cb866f79c0f835eb975316dd63dcdd5d14753b6585480e6be1acb6621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,751 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 71c | 7,283$5,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 76c | 2,310$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.92 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 24c | 2,109$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.19 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 70c | 2,077$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 75c | 1,750$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 27c | 1,598$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 70c | 1,353$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.93 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 32c | 1,154$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.74 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 68c | 732.52$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 62c | 718.8$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 68c | 699.35$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.33 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 66c | 640.68$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 587.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 66c | 556$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.54 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 6c | 540$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 535.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 17c | 353.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 67c | 349.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3c61backed Yes | 77c | 339.99$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 36c | 314.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…6f9fbacked No | 32c | 313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…6cb7backed No | 32c | 313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…1a60backed No | 32c | 312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…1f9bbacked No | 32c | 311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6f…0fb5backed No | 32c | 311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca6…b05cbacked No | 32c | 311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Yes | 69c | 290.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 61c | 283.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…9fedbacked No | 32c | 238$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1731…ab65backed No | 32c | 236$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 11c | 231.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 229.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed No | 33c | 220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 206.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 63c | 204$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc86…e8c8backed No | 35c | 185$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes | 70c | 177.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 29c | 176.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…4feebacked No | 35c | 173$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 35c | 170.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 167.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5d…1ee0backed No | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…6995backed No | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…6698backed No | 35c | 162$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…5874backed No | 35c | 159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…2804backed No | 35c | 158$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…bb3fbacked No | 22c | 155.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 76c | 155$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc8…050ebacked Yes | 78c | 152$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 77c | 150.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…06e0backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…9118backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…b293backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…9a41backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…14b3backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…3d8fbacked Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…17d2backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…4a68backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…8bc2backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…fa0bbacked Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…b191backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67a…8536backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…17cebacked Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b4…f55bbacked Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e7…9692backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5671…0a1fbacked Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…681cbacked No | 32c | 144$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes | 69c | 143.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…1886backed No | 27c | 140.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…6302backed No | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes | 73c | 137.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 74c | 134.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 134.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…04d0backed No | 31c | 131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 41c | 126$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…42f0backed Yes | 75c | 122.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked No | 30c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…2a62backed No | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 78c | 109.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 101.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…53a1backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 68c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…c501backed Yes | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…4d7cbacked Yes | 65c | 97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…df1bbacked Yes | 65c | 97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…8042backed Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…2ecabacked Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?this page
- Will Jan Schakowsky be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?No won
- Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?No won
- Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.