Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3aa8486173859dc9a0bc377f2774aae02f39dc3ac3c4b816ea93a40ecf669f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,492 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 9,486$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 1c | 1,758$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,124$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 870.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 603.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 3c | 345$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 311.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 295.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 290.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 8c | 281.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 7c | 205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 131.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 17c | 74.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…f6fdbacked No | 77c | 42.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 32.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 22.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…ff3abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?this page
- Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?Yes won
- Will Jan Schakowsky be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?No won
- Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.