TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,117 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0caf…e7a2backed Yes3c18,027$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…8b87backed Yes30c3,306$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes27c3,117$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.1224433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes33c2,958$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.73020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd2…9b1abacked Yes27c2,804$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.37944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes33c1,732$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.522133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes8c1,490$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2812440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes25c1,318$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.112142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No67c1,206$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.239646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c1,130$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.8933238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No64c1,065$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.4215445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x120b…ee03backed Yes26c1,029$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eec…a919backed Yes6c996.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c944.97$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.533857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed Yes40c879.54$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…b950backed Yes35c856.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad33…104bbacked Yes30c846.98$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes32c802.48$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No73c795.98$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.236653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No76c750$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No75c750$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.53070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a1…8f8dbacked Yes41c724.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes17c700$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes32c672.78$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2215232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes2c620.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.412114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No76c615$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.5321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No67c517$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed Yes33c517$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fa…7f1dbacked No77c514.23$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c506.77$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2321155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes28c500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.914425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes39c494.9$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.633145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No72c450$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1419631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes28c437.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7916632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes29c416$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes19c415.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.812643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2925…d61dbacked Yes27c390$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes11c386.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.995747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb348…776fbacked Yes35c375.57$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f0…e08dbacked Yes25c348.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b6…1cd3backed No72c329.99$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No80c325.09$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.025841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf439…e80ebacked Yes32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fa…a86abacked Yes32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491c…5c7fbacked Yes32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…5bafbacked Yes32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d0…4db5backed Yes32c313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf965…434bbacked Yes32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd845…682abacked Yes32c312$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes25c311.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1c…6bffbacked Yes32c311$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No73c278.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.282638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No70c276.77$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.811764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x053f…5f6dbacked Yes29c274$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.98425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f2…5da6backed Yes26c271.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4549…0450backed Yes32c246.33$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No70c239.16$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes25c238.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.622263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c00…03c7backed Yes32c227$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e5…953abacked Yes40c220.23$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c219.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4149511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…f484backed Yes46c212.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de0…1886backed No75c201.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.431145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c183.72$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1912150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No71c176.6$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.661553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes26c175.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…dc4ebacked Yes37c155$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc8…050ebacked No78c152$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes21c150.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7518310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick30cpaid+135.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb02f…d27abacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55f9…2d7dbacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…6d12backed No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0966…f8dabacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda03…93cfbacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b54…af9abacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6443…069bbacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3302…2b81backed No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf173…ed5abacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c2…36a4backed No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…33adbacked Yes34c146$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c85…6a7ebacked No68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b25…ce9ebacked No68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d3…23fbbacked No68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes7c144$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…dce7backed Yes34c143$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462c…53bfbacked Yes18c142.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…ec8abacked No68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0181…80a3backed No68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…2388backed No68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc708…e31ebacked Yes39c136$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked No75c135.9$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c134.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3933421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x174b…8dc5backed No68c134$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…68cdbacked No68c133$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes25c132$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a6…3a5ebacked No68c132$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.