TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed No72c5,303$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Yes28c5,065$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked No75c4,520$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.443839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe98…59b7backed No78c3,229$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7012100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec18…0720backed Yes33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ee…ae61backed No69c2,668$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No58c2,610$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.6611761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x282a…f2c5backed Yes28c2,499$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Yes43c2,334$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe853…75a8backed No67c1,992$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f88…cd62backed Yes29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbee4…8399backed Yes32c1,487$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed No71c1,415$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.324465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0928…c61abacked Yes35c1,106$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204934.7%17 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No73c999.98$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.999053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Yes19c864.27$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0890553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No72c699.29$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.84643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e5…d3febacked Yes29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No71c650$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.514551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No71c563.15$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.411747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes29c559.11$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed No74c503.93$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.022576%19 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes22c463.44$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.963961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No71c414.02$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2338153.5%204 W · 177 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…9d06backed Yes32c407.59$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No73c399.98$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes7c386.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.74643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5379…2ed4backed No77c379.91$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.091553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…7975backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c0…bef4backed Yes29c310.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No69c305.86$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8812541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…e692backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes30c293.44$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+78.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe3…4766backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+194.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa66b…cca4backed Yes32c247.82$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes32c234.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e10…d415backed Yes30c232.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…b3e7backed Yes27c222.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83a1…fa1abacked Yes30c217.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x434f…4d09backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9887…8e6dbacked Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc59…df13backed Yes28c179.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+130.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1440…2eb0backed Yes28c178.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No73c174.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2513646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dd…bcd9backed Yes29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No63c169.98$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8948749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbd…a3a4backed Yes30c163.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d0e…e9c1backed Yes30c156.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.842544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ac…bec2backed No68c147.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.831675%12 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe855…1679backed Yes35c143.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes28c143$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.041723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad17…3bd6backed No75c134.47$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No71c116.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.174252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b6…4787backed Yes35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be8…d871backed Yes30c103.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d6…551abacked Yes27c102.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4d…2f49backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+86%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b2b…d461backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…2e00backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cac…a026backed Yes30c98.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f8…df6ebacked Yes30c98.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes27c95.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.71631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f72…a00cbacked No73c93.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb085…fc57backed Yes27c90.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6296…4ac7backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251540%6 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes26c75.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205841.4%24 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cba…4d5bbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…1cf0backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x957f…0495backed Yes32c72.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes28c72.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+90.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8162…3522backed Yes27c71.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae10…16c4backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x192d…ebabbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb621…8dcdbacked Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes32c68.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250b…5d3cbacked Yes28c67.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe7…d416backed No63c67.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f39…7a21backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked No68c66.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf124…9d72backed No71c60.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes27c59.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9840…8b6dbacked No67c59.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.527258.3%42 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89a2…5541backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfafa…cdf4backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes24c54.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3313221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f1a…66b4backed Yes28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68fe…63a5backed Yes28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked No75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…13adbacked Yes32c52.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d5…281fbacked Yes29c51.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…0c80backed Yes30c50.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x384d…b196backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No67c48.91$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1411937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3903…a083backed Yes31c47.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.