TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1440…2eb0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.21
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+269.6%+$266.93
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.34
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.2
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.57
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.23
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$36.38
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.43
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$49.46
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$677Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$172.97
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.99
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+400%+$100
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$34.78
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+203%+$52.26
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.06
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.2
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$45.44
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$43.9
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21.42
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.96
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.81
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.97
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.73
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$110.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$66.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$4.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$7.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.