Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d3b7cca892a75d9bb521920352d66003e1295c46756698fd9c4f9dd6cca72f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,419 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 59c | 2,479$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.72 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…d3cebacked Yes | 50c | 2,082$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 64c | 2,029$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 36c | 1,752$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,600$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 1,309$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 29c | 1,211$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 36c | 1,114$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 74c | 1,088$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.74 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 1,078$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…3bfebacked No | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 27c | 849.11$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 51c | 801.53$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 22c | 799.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 15c | 764$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 44c | 680.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.24 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 45c | 668.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 34c | 629.16$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 75c | 606.45$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 68c | 587.38$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 75c | 564.5$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…2af0backed Yes | 49c | 529.94$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 46c | 517.97$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.55 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 62c | 510.78$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…89b4backed Yes | 57c | 502.15$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 37c | 474.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 29c | 472.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 80c | 457.93$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 30c | 455$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 428.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.5 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 44c | 423.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.51 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…b1dabacked No | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 372.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.4 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 13c | 369$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 64c | 357.71$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 21c | 349.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 30c | 336.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed No | 75c | 322.07$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 50c | 314.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed No | 57c | 306$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 49c | 305.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 292.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a37…e212backed Yes | 78c | 292.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…f4a5backed Yes | 32c | 288.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 248.82$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 243.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 56c | 240.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 60c | 235.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 60c | 229.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 70c | 226.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +120%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 60c | 219.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 67c | 213.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 45c | 211.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…1c5dbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8fb8backed Yes | 26c | 198.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked No | 28c | 193.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 50c | 188.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 186.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…2eb0backed No | 20c | 182.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 177.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 164.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 48c | 157.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 157.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 52c | 148.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 20c | 133.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 61c | 129.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…8783backed No | 54c | 116$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…cd9abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 96.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed Yes | 74c | 95.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes | 69c | 90.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Yes | 44c | 89.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 46c | 88.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes | 28c | 87.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 67c | 87.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Yes | 41c | 84.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…edb7backed No | 29c | 80.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e27bbacked Yes | 68c | 74.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 49c | 72.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed Yes | 28c | 72.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 51c | 70.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 70c | 68.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed No | 40c | 67.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed No | 56c | 63.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 40c | 63.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 22c | 61.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.