Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08efddd8544f17e9dfadfc00251c5403fefe939b3dee42358afb5e2c71ccb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 21c | 1,804$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 14c | 1,660$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 27c | 1,110$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 21c | 1,095$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.33 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 78c | 893.11$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 73c | 889$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 802.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 27c | 756$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 3c | 689.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 79c | 618$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 27c | 616$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 79c | 607$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 79c | 579$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 73c | 565$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 19c | 542$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 521$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 12c | 514.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 24c | 498.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 73c | 488$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 468$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 76c | 446.08$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 73c | 409.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 73c | 406$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 27c | 401$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 73c | 394$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed No | 73c | 376$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 73c | 373$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 73c | 361$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 75c | 336$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 25c | 336$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 27c | 333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 27c | 319$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 20c | 292.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 14c | 260.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed Yes | 18c | 224.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 22c | 164.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 23c | 141.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 27c | 133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…0407backed Yes | 18c | 131.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 21c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 45c | 123.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 76c | 117.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 99.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 91.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 75c | 87.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…6f23backed Yes | 14c | 70.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…da6dbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 25c | 58.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 27c | 56.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 53.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 80c | 52.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 44c | 48.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 33.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 29.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 24.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…06bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2c…633abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…403cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…01e7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.