Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a0743208fe1018a2585ee5fe18ae6db78177ddfe8a96717f5fa275c0b6680e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 9c | 29,161$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 5c | 8,119$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.86 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 5c | 6,292$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 5,598$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e38…9042backed Yes | 14c | 5,399$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91c…a8c1backed Yes | 7c | 4,571$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 11c | 4,216$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 3,963$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.02 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 14c | 3,312$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 9c | 3,085$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…4b23backed Yes | 10c | 2,731$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 16c | 2,564$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes | 31c | 2,469$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,433$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 2,260$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,186$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 4c | 2,011$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 74c | 1,975$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,836$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,816$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 10c | 1,774$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,687$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,669$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 5c | 1,663$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 41c | 1,624$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,616$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 18c | 1,501$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…0407backed Yes | 5c | 1,409$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 13c | 1,385$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 14c | 1,382$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…7f2bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,355$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,325$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…f10ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,286$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 11c | 1,272$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…d5bfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,252$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,100$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 18c | 1,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 11c | 1,074$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…4fd5backed Yes | 8c | 1,007$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,005$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 8c | 995.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…b1dabacked Yes | 11c | 995$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 965.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 4c | 950$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…5136backed Yes | 11c | 919.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 11c | 903.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 875$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 10c | 866.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 7c | 757.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…194ebacked Yes | 14c | 735.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…482cbacked Yes | 10c | 724.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 7c | 681.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 48c | 680.9$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 13c | 653.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29d…343abacked Yes | 9c | 651.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 11c | 651.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…2927backed Yes | 12c | 645$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 5c | 619.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 11c | 602.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 601.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…f044backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 12c | 594.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7931…dc53backed Yes | 15c | 591.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 18c | 589.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 17c | 588$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 573.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…6f23backed Yes | 6c | 553.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8411…c309backed Yes | 12c | 549.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…8b0abacked Yes | 19c | 540.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96eb…7ca6backed Yes | 11c | 539.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked Yes | 17c | 537.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…7f85backed Yes | 19c | 528.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…b5e6backed Yes | 16c | 516.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 506.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 11c | 504$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…7b2cbacked Yes | 11c | 489.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…9e0ebacked Yes | 12c | 483.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…2bdbbacked Yes | 19c | 481.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 9c | 481.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…538abacked Yes | 12c | 460.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 11c | 448.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 17c | 446.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…44b3backed Yes | 24c | 418.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 11c | 406.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb292…92b6backed Yes | 6c | 404.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 7c | 400.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 72c | 397.36$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…d14fbacked Yes | 6c | 383.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed Yes | 11c | 348.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 336.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…0ee5backed Yes | 10c | 335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed Yes | 3c | 311.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.