Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1f32f60268cf9d1125f85b0d599cda6b6010792ce41d75ece8478b2fd1cbdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,686$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.35 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 47c | 1,560$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.75 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,517$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 71c | 1,365$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.88 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 21c | 1,195$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 23c | 1,180$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 70c | 1,168$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked No | 70c | 1,027$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,025$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 13c | 824.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 38c | 813$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 57c | 797$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 30c | 777$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 76c | 767.14$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 747.41$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.59 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 733.29$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.55 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 706.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 75c | 700.31$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.7 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 80c | 683.57$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 77c | 594$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 35c | 587.82$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 77c | 586$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 50c | 535$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed No | 62c | 532$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked Yes | 43c | 519$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 57c | 516$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 62c | 480$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 57c | 467$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 43c | 464$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 70c | 399.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed Yes | 29c | 333.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 62c | 333$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 23c | 301.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 35c | 289.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 80c | 282$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 43c | 275$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 38c | 273$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 43c | 273$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 38c | 259$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 43c | 249$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 30c | 235.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 23c | 205.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 195.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 191.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 73c | 170.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 69c | 167.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 30c | 161$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 20c | 153$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 46c | 152.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 152.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 36c | 146.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 57c | 145.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 71c | 141.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked No | 71c | 141.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 69c | 135.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed No | 79c | 132.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…2a52backed Yes | 64c | 130.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 20c | 129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 57c | 128.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 57c | 122.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…0407backed Yes | 17c | 120.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…aa56backed Yes | 23c | 118.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 69c | 113.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 57c | 110.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…8c8bbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 25c | 109.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 107.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…1c5dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cb…6741backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 87.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…6f23backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 81.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 49c | 77.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 76.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 74.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 64c | 69.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 69.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked No | 74c | 65.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked No | 66c | 60.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…5324backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 37c | 55.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 48c | 51.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.