Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9db502f7a09c47dc1c9df8e6d6a77eef361042ab24d3fe36027fac52bd66f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,500 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 0c | 11,250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 59c | 3,515$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.28 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 29c | 2,052$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 60c | 2,048$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.27 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.98 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 16c | 1,771$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.09 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 42c | 1,661$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 1,502$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 6c | 1,479$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 31c | 1,353$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 1,314$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.39 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed No | 70c | 1,179$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 26c | 1,080$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.97 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 22c | 1,074$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 71c | 974$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 64c | 967$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 28c | 961$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 5c | 951.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 72c | 937$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 71c | 924$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 25c | 900$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.93 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…3bfebacked No | 1c | 899.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 72c | 893$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 28c | 869$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 78c | 815$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 744.45$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.64 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 36c | 735$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes | 35c | 686.51$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 37c | 681.22$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 30c | 667.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 658.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 36c | 633$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 40c | 630$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed No | 63c | 619.44$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed Yes | 30c | 614$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 39c | 610$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 36c | 610$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 69c | 602$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 44c | 600$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.45 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 69c | 593$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 30c | 565$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 69c | 562$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 7c | 558.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed No | 72c | 548.05$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 58c | 513.18$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 64c | 495$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 442$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed No | 8c | 424.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 64c | 412.97$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 56c | 404$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 31c | 404$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +261.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 68c | 402$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 32c | 402$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked No | 72c | 399.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 396.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 49c | 382$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 64c | 370$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 3c | 368.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 49c | 336.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 44c | 335$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 328.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.34 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 60c | 325$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 32c | 316.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 315.21$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 313.45$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 61c | 306$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 61c | 304$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 35c | 284.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 23c | 273$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 78c | 259$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 33c | 239.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 67c | 235.26$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 51c | 233.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 5c | 217.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 60c | 215.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 60c | 197$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 39c | 178.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 11c | 173.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…7789backed No | 74c | 171.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 32c | 160$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 71c | 154$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 46c | 152.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 61c | 151.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 143.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 132.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 40c | 124.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 75c | 123.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 75c | 122.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…1c5dbacked No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 72c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 62c | 117.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 66c | 116.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…41acbacked No | 73c | 114.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 11c | 112.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed No | 63c | 111.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.