Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897defe14e58b0dfd49e486435d34b4f2c6e1022e7a86d26f03bf6a2293016bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 23c | 2,247$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 77c | 2,197$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 31c | 1,973$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 16c | 1,749$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 74c | 1,716$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 1,542$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.59 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 1,480$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.73 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 31c | 1,455$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,408$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 59c | 1,377$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.9 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 1,276$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.63 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 31c | 1,224$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 69c | 1,198$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 69c | 1,188$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 77c | 1,163$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 80c | 1,084$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 78c | 1,072$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 77c | 1,052$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed No | 77c | 1,049$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 29c | 991$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 29c | 988$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…3baabacked Yes | 31c | 978.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 73c | 964.6$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.79 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 23c | 960.87$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 71c | 955$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 911.76$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.83 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 79c | 899.51$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 77c | 875$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 69c | 859.12$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 28c | 837.28$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.44 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 12c | 814.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 27c | 749.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 23c | 740$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 23c | 735$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 23c | 722$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 30c | 719.61$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 23c | 711$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 22c | 698$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 22c | 696$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 23c | 681$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed No | 71c | 676$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 69c | 671$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 69c | 665$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 23c | 646$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 32c | 642$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 69c | 635.55$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 72c | 621$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes | 32c | 596$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 20c | 551$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 31c | 545.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 20c | 533$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 71c | 519.7$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 69c | 515$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 78c | 500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 69c | 477$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 29c | 471.59$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked No | 69c | 461$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes | 28c | 456.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 30c | 445$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 68c | 431$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 75c | 429.51$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 68c | 411$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed Yes | 32c | 409.59$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 68c | 396$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 26c | 378.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 370.78$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…72febacked No | 70c | 359.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 28c | 351.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 335.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed No | 78c | 322$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 75c | 320$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 73c | 306$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 302.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 28c | 287.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 278.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 53c | 263$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 65c | 249.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 69c | 248$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 28c | 244.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 70c | 234$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 26c | 227.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 28c | 226$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 70c | 211$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed Yes | 28c | 198$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 28c | 197$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 32c | 189.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 33c | 187.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 29c | 171.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 162.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 151$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 77c | 146$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 145.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 134.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…6f23backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.