AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178b29c0bb3a1c482f37f42e2420a1aa686b960ef0004e9ed07d7f46581779c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,157,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,885,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,157,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,624 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 58c | 246,758$144,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,512.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 66,074$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.62 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 23c | 47,798$11,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,084.99 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed Yes | 76c | 39,412$29,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,493.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…abc7backed No | 5c | 31,957$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcc…a7eebacked No | 11c | 29,464$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 5c | 26,357$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…587dbacked No | 0c | 25,218$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 24,902$17,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,276.07 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x257a…3df6backed No | 10c | 22,401$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 11c | 21,366$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 34c | 20,895$7,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,059.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 20,703$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.11 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8031backed No | 41c | 20,500$8,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,420.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…0a1ebacked No | 37c | 20,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,399.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 57c | 17,279$9,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,425.37 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked No | 63c | 16,533$10,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,341.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…b2c2backed No | 1c | 15,664$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 21c | 14,636$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,115.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 32c | 14,150$4,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,546 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93be…5f73backed No | 27c | 13,825$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 60c | 13,313$7,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.38 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5667…837cbacked Yes | 68c | 13,243$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,243.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 30c | 12,832$3,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…6542backed No | 43c | 12,829$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,502.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 2c | 12,286$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 27c | 11,832$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.43 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 36c | 11,803$4,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,514.03 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 11,595$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…5576backed No | 6c | 11,523$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 35c | 11,187$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…ea58backed No | 9c | 10,911$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 53c | 10,804$5,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7f82backed Yes | 48c | 10,147$4,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +197%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…f79abacked No | 10c | 10,082$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 14c | 9,536$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2188…385fbacked No | 8c | 9,061$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…eb28backed No | 7c | 8,801$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked No | 1c | 8,692$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 8,306$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.43 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 31c | 8,160$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 34c | 8,047$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 58c | 7,988$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3723…5d55backed Yes | 35c | 7,833$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,057.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 33c | 7,646$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 76c | 7,643$5,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…4079backed No | 8c | 7,635$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 62c | 7,510$4,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 7,480$5,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.38 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 24c | 7,303$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 7c | 7,044$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 42c | 7,000$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 69c | 6,845$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…d4e8backed No | 33c | 6,552$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…b4e2backed No | 33c | 6,295$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 56c | 6,201$3,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…5cd0backed No | 7c | 6,100$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 56c | 6,097$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429.73 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 51c | 6,065$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,997.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 63c | 6,000$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 46c | 5,971$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 42c | 5,818$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.51 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 1c | 5,587$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 61c | 5,372$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,285 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked No | 21c | 5,276$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 72c | 5,204$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.63 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…0f4bbacked Yes | 64c | 5,162$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked No | 40c | 5,114$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 28c | 4,877$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.14 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5451…3f69backed No | 1c | 4,818$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked No | 70c | 4,743$3,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305.72 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 49c | 4,695$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.78 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 7c | 4,687$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 1c | 4,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 75c | 4,449$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 69c | 4,321$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 59c | 4,187$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 5c | 4,156$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…7b22backed Yes | 65c | 4,073$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 56c | 4,012$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +216%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…68c0backed Yes | 33c | 3,998$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 34c | 3,851$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.91 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed No | 68c | 3,798$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 6c | 3,784$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…d66ebacked No | 73c | 3,772$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 10c | 3,758$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…cad4backed No | 1c | 3,754$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…a5dcbacked No | 0c | 3,720$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked No | 49c | 3,697$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.73 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9d…536abacked No | 1c | 3,685$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…4954backed Yes | 20c | 3,638$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +411.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes | 40c | 3,600$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 57c | 3,585$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 35c | 3,543$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.35 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 43c | 3,531$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…440bbacked No | 3c | 3,505$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 29c | 3,446$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 3,433$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.94 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.