AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b19e82f8583f700a3df4ed02abdedf32b4c8cd9bd6cf2502230ef199010c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 25c | 34,833$8,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,863.12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 25c | 11,988$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,357$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 3c | 8,187$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.67 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 0c | 8,181$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 67c | 6,995$4,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 19c | 6,234$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 76c | 5,801$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 21c | 4,968$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d47dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked No | 74c | 4,642$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 28c | 3,975$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…5d1fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,646$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 3,577$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…e7c5backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…4a24backed Yes | 2c | 3,315$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +460%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 26c | 3,288$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.57 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…09f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 62c | 3,031$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.49 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 63c | 2,800$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…ed95backed Yes | 18c | 2,788$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 70c | 2,765$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.81 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 75c | 2,580$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,546$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 2,357$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.67 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 62c | 2,279$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.51 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 4c | 2,220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 76c | 2,166$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 12c | 2,049$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.27 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 1,836$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.66 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,820$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 22c | 1,807$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…1a9dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,778$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 9c | 1,600$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked No | 78c | 1,443$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 9c | 1,393$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52ea…3454backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…1d5cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,273$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 29c | 1,269$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 22c | 1,209$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed No | 79c | 1,186$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 78c | 1,154$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,149$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 80c | 1,140$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…2ba0backed Yes | 21c | 1,072$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…ef08backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 67c | 979.96$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…c42fbacked Yes | 2c | 881$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 1c | 859.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…f655backed Yes | 14c | 850.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 59c | 822.39$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.42 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes | 2c | 797.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 788.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…e99dbacked Yes | 44c | 735.33$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 19c | 718.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed Yes | 3c | 709.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…539bbacked No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 29c | 648.26$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 19c | 625.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 13c | 616.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 7c | 579.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…a2f5backed No | 35c | 556.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…fb1abacked No | 75c | 533.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 73c | 530.88$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…466dbacked No | 76c | 524.39$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 5c | 521.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…1294backed No | 78c | 514.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b81…9b81backed Yes | 3c | 502.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…eedebacked Yes | 3c | 485.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…136bbacked No | 76c | 478.77$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a1…76b7backed No | 32c | 462.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked No | 69c | 458.33$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed No | 79c | 458.33$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed No | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 12c | 453.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…b4cebacked No | 56c | 449.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…3939backed Yes | 3c | 422.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…acd9backed No | 76c | 422.53$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 50c | 409.3$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…cac0backed Yes | 15c | 401.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…1f82backed No | 80c | 397$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 17c | 384$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…0e22backed No | 60c | 364.2$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 70c | 355.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…d45cbacked No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 348.05$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 75c | 344.42$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 64c | 303$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…38efbacked Yes | 4c | 303$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 26c | 299.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 26c | 287.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 77c | 279.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…4664backed Yes | 16c | 263.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…1c1fbacked Yes | 15c | 260.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.