TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c36…0e22

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.64
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$138.23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$57.95
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$58.17
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.11
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$119.7
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$31.2
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$81.78
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$156.9
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$13.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+311.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$72.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$383.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.