Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe40929791ddf00d7029dcc258ff18c90b578e8df0b257c1afd5fc1897bef58a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 78c | 1,741$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed No | 1c | 1,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 12c | 824$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 1c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 45c | 739.91$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 599.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 14c | 599.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 32c | 598.71$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed No | 34c | 365.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 4c | 288.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 260.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 18c | 230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…bc81backed No | 10c | 220.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 69c | 187.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 11c | 186.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed No | 30c | 181.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 147.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 66c | 124.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…e846backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…0e22backed Yes | 44c | 112.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 100.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…43cabacked No | 33c | 96.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 94.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 16c | 69.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 68.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 52c | 67.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 24c | 60.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 23c | 59.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…6924backed No | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 53.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +395.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…8db7backed Yes | 62c | 48.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 47.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…031dbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…5106backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed Yes | 78c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 68c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8de…a93cbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 17, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?Yes won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.