TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0562…9d66backed No27c6,044$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.443030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,737$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.581644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a0…dd1dbacked Yes78c3,005$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c2,372$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.782114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No1c2,123$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.091844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4075…8fb8backed No2c2,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No2c1,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes75c1,562$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.284845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9111…36a1backed No17c1,500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked No20c1,488$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5460%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…e846backed No25c1,351$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.951040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02b…9308backed No2c1,249$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No5c1,090$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No13c1,075$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.552528%7 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes39c1,006$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+74.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No8c961.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.651931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed No2c900$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes60c808.15$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.361421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked No16c787.69$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes53c751.24$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.92988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No6c723.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.483917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed No2c670.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c650.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.79633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed No57c611.48$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No40c590$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.384843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No25c537.62$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.42714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49bd…9864backed Yes21c531.25$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.25475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+183.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No20c451.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.12441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c450$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No35c446.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.631040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No20c426.11$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No51c419.6$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No33c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No37c391.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.021450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No70c356.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c300.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.07214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c300$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2357537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick69cpaid-59.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1038…43cabacked No10c295.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes62c256.81$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.392835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes65c193.58$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.755121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…1b02backed Yes74c134.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x217d…6ea1backed No78c129$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed No57c127.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eee…dd8bbacked No80c125.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No64c122.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+200.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No41c122.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7712425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc05b…c081backed No61c113.11$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes44c110$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c107.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.688013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes45c103.69$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.163737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf84…8e10backed No50c100.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78a…cd4bbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+58.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0c…90a3backed No21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+104.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No40c98.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.952969%20 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0219…6833backed Yes24c94.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+104.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes42c91.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd7…96d3backed No31c89.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No13c80.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4320%0 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2010…18febacked No75c77.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.611361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+80.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ea…7f6dbacked Yes20c76.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+396.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes45c71.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.042259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1369…02c0backed Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fc…d0fbbacked No78c66.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f3…a1a4backed No31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9d…373ebacked No37c59.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+36.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes47c56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb63d…564cbacked No77c45.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes65c43.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No49c40.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe42f…be79backed Yes79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2feb…6366backed Yes65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.447041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0827…f47ebacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes75c26.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.59988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a0…d398backed Yes55c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d9…f359backed Yes62c19.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb34b…95a7backed No62c17.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c6b…c641backed Yes64c16.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick42cpaid+260.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fc5…51c4backed Yes68c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f97…ded2backed No73c15.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c9b…fb5fbacked No78c14.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d5…be20backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.