AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f1e4d8bc7bd1adf60a7f871627a7a3b8a6ebbdd2918c1b5b89d92712590cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 58c | 8,990$5,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,760.47 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 71c | 7,006$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.8 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 45c | 6,842$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 6,523$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.4 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 32c | 5,220$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 30c | 4,998$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 66c | 4,439$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.56 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 75c | 4,161$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 70c | 3,500$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 70c | 2,466$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…9dc5backed No | 27c | 1,462$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 30c | 1,461$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 1,400$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 35c | 1,027$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.41 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 1,022$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed No | 39c | 999.66$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 918$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 38c | 776.39$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.13 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bf…e441backed No | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 80c | 721.41$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed Yes | 71c | 708.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…afd4backed Yes | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 29c | 584.78$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 36c | 575.07$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 38c | 552.45$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…d781backed Yes | 61c | 413.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Yes | 65c | 399.98$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…d1b4backed Yes | 70c | 399.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 383.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…acd9backed No | 44c | 364.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 8c | 356.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 29c | 351.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 30c | 349.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6e…1750backed No | 37c | 342.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 320.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…25a1backed No | 13c | 317.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…1f99backed No | 32c | 310.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 66c | 310$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…1546backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…61f9backed No | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…2f43backed Yes | 70c | 286.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…c5f9backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…1172backed Yes | 77c | 277.57$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 19c | 269.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed No | 38c | 259.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…68d4backed No | 38c | 258.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…60afbacked No | 39c | 255.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 31c | 230.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked No | 30c | 221$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 35c | 207.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 69c | 200.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…b706backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 67c | 199.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 70c | 192.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 40c | 187.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 13c | 186.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…1660backed No | 34c | 178.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 36c | 178.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5362backed No | 36c | 173.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 70c | 168.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 63c | 155.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…0e22backed No | 29c | 149.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 146.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…2d69backed Yes | 70c | 143.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…f69cbacked Yes | 60c | 133.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…c08bbacked Yes | 62c | 128.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 39c | 127.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 55c | 121.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 119.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…6a11backed No | 43c | 116.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…a6c0backed Yes | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…f814backed No | 46c | 108.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…92b9backed Yes | 70c | 108.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…c3f0backed No | 40c | 106.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed No | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed No | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…458abacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…ad4fbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…bfbdbacked Yes | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 33c | 92.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 84.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.